Weather Update: The Latest On Joaquin
By Steven Strouss
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- Hurricane Joaquin is a Category 4 Hurricane with winds of 130 mph. This is a very dangerous hurricane which will impact the central Bahamas through Friday with flooding rains and damaging wind. The track of Joaquin has shifted East and it look less likely that it will make landfall in the U.S. The European model has consistently kept it out to sea and the other computer guidance is catching on to that trend as of today. We are growing more confident that Joaquin stays far enough offshore that we will not see any inland impacts in our region.
Regardless, of the track, Joaquin is still a large hurricane with tropical storm force winds extending almost 200 miles from the storm's center. It may also intensify a little more as it remains over very warm water and in an environment favorable for strengthening.
Despite Joaquin, the entire Delaware Valley will still sustain heavy rain and gusty winds associated with a stalled front off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Rounds of rain will continue to push in now through Saturday and rain amounts will add up to 1-3" across the region. Strong onshore winds with this frontal system will create moderate coastal flooding along the shore and beaches. Coastal areas will also experience rough surf, dangerous rip currents and minor to moderate beach erosion. Keep in mind, this event is not associated with Joaquin but rather a result of a tight pressure gradient between high pressure to our north and an area of low pressure near the Gulf coast states. Here is what we expect during the next 24-36 hours: Again, this is not Joaquin.
- 1-3" of rain from Philadelphia eastward to New Jersey, with amounts closer to 4" further South and closer to 1" in the Poconos.
- Winds Inland will be 15-25 mph out of the Northeast direction with gusts to 40 mph
- Winds at the coast will be 25-35 mph out of the Northeast direction with gusts to 50 mph.
- Flooding is not expected on area rivers but small creeks and streams will need to be monitored.
- Tidal flooding will occur with each high tide cycle at the shore. (This is a result of the onshore wind pushing the water inland, not flooding from rain) High tide times are around 11:00PM Thursday and 11:30AM Friday.
- It will be chilly. Temperatures across the area will have a hard time getting out of the 50s on Friday and it will stay cool on Saturday with highs near 60.
With the track of Joaquin now trending farther East, Sunday will be a transitional day with plenty of clouds, a few showers and breezy conditions with highs in the upper 60s. We expect sunshine to return as early as Monday along with warmer temperatures which will extend through Thursday!
