Phillies vs. Diamondbacks NLCS Game 3: Odds, best bets, prediction
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- The Phillies homered their way past the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first two games of the National League Championship Series at Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia hit six long balls in the first two games to take a 2-0 lead in the NLCS. The Fightins have also gotten dominant performances from aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola and the bullpen.
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Now, the series heads to Chase Field for Game 3. Here are my favorite bets ahead of the first pitch:
Phillies (-1.5, +122) vs. Diamondbacks (+1.5, -146)
Over/under: 9
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook
Thursday at 5:07 p.m. at Chase Field
Kyle Schwarber HR
Schwarber was very quiet in the National League Wild Card and Division Series. There were no Schwarbombs, but he quickly reminded everyone of his power in Game 1 of the NLCS Monday night. He smacked Zac Gallen's first pitch out of the park to give the Phillies an early lead. Then in Game 2, he did it two more times.
Like in the 2022 postseason, Schwarber is coming alive in the NLCS. During last year's playoffs, Schwarber also didn't homer or make much of an impact at the plate in the Wild Card or NLDS, but Phillies manager Rob Thomson stuck with him at the leadoff spot and it paid off. He went on to hit a total of six homers combined in the 11 final games as the Phillies lost to the Houston Astros in the World Series.
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Schwarber is currently listed at +255 to homer in Game 3 and I'll continue to bet him until he goes cold.
Diamondbacks rookie right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt was prone to homers this season, allowing 22 in 19 games. He might not be in the game too long, but as we know, Schwarber could go yard on the first pitch.
Odds: FanDuel
Nick Castellanos 2+ Total Bases
Castellanos was a complete zero at the plate for the Phillies last postseason. He played extremely well in the field but was a liability in the lineup.
But this postseason, it's been a different story. After hitting .185/.232/.246/478 in 2022, Castellanos is smoking the ball. His batting splits are .345/.394/.931/1.325 -- all rank in the top 20 among postseason hitters -- and he's smacked five homers.
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Castellanos has only had one hit in the NLCS -- his homer in Game 1 -- but he's still dangerous at the plate and could be in store for a massive Game 3 with Pfaadt on the mound, which is why I like him to get at least two bags in Game 3.
Odds: FanDuel
Phillies First 5 Innings Run Line
The Diamondbacks will be desperate heading into Game 3, but the Phillies are playing like a well-oiled machine right now. They have a run differential of +33 in the playoffs and only trailed in two innings in eight total games.
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I'll gladly take the Phillies at -0.5 (+108) on the first 5 innings run line with the Diamondbacks sending a rookie to the mound and Ranger Suarez pitching in Game 3.
Odds: FanDuel
Same Game Parlay +772
- Schwarber HR
- Castellanos 2+ Total Bases
- Phillies Moneyline
Prediction
Phillies 7, Diamondbacks 3
