Phillies free agency: The case for Carlos Correa
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- The Phillies are no stranger to making headlines in free agency. Coming two wins shy from winning the World Series, it likely won't be a quiet winter in Philadelphia.
The middle infield is the one non-pitching area of need, and it happens to be a shortstop-rich market. Bryson Stott proved capable of being an everyday player but could shift to second base.
This week, CBS Philadelphia is breaking down the shortstop market and making a case for the big names. We've looked at Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner.
The case for Carlos Correa
Age: 28
Bats/throws: R/R
2022 team: Minnesota Twins
Correa opted out of a three-year, $105 million contract he signed with the Minnesota Twins. He is giving free agency another go after failing to secure the lucrative deal he was seeking last year. This winter may treat him better, though it's another shortstop-heavy market.
Last offseason, Correa entered free agency alongside Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Marcus Seimen and Trevor Story. Seager, Baez and Seimen all secured long-term deals before the owner-imposed lockout. Correa and Story waited, and only Story got the long-term contract.
The now 28-year-old surprised the baseball world when he signed with Minnesota, but it allowed him to bet on himself and try again this winter or in his age-30 season.
Correa opted to try again this winter, and here we are.
The player
Drafted with the first overall pick in 2012 in a first round that produced 18 All-Stars, Correa made his name with the Houston Astros. He made his MLB on June 8, 2015, and won the American League Rookie of the Year by hitting 22 homers and posting a 135 OPS+ in 99 games.
Correa quickly established himself as one of the game's best shortstops. His best season came in 2017, the same year Houston won the World Series since tainted by a sign-stealing scandal.
In 2017, his third season, Correa made his first All-Star team, was voted the AL Player of the Month for May and posted a 155 OPS+ in 109 games. He slashed .315/.391/.550 with 24 home runs and 177 hits. He then hit .288 with five homers and 14 RBIs in the postseason.
Injuries derided his 2018 season, but Correa has posted at least a 124 OPS+ in all but two seasons in his career -- 2018 and the 2020 COVID-19-shortened season.
In his final season with Houston, Correa slugged 26 homers, slashed .279/.366/.485 and scored 104 runs. He had a 131 OPS+. He also won his first Gold Glove and the AL Platinum Glove, which is awarded to the best defender in either league.
Correa's 2022 season perhaps went under the radar because he was playing for a smaller market in Minnesota, but he posted his second-highest OPS+ with 140, hitting .291/.366/.467 with 22 homers and 64 RBIs.
The fit
As outlined in the Swanson breakdown, the Phillies' shortstop defense hasn't been up to snuff since the Jimmy Rollins days. Shortstops have cost the Phils 55 runs since 2015, according to FanGraphs, and 12 runs last season. Correa and Swanson are the best defenders on the market.
Based on FanGraphs' model, Correa saved three runs last season and was three outs below average at shortstop in his first season in Minnesota. His three DRS were the fewest saved since his rookie season.
The overall sample size, though, paints Correa as a plus defender with a premium bat to boot.
There is no question Correa fits with what the Phillies need at shortstop. He would give the Phils a big bat at shortstop who plays excellent defense, but he would come with some injury risk and the 2017 cheating scandal hovering over him.
Ultimately, it will come down to the contract. It's unlikely Correa is going to settle for another short-term deal with an opt-out this time around. He's going to want to score big, but the market will tell the final story.
Correa switched agents before signing in Minnesota in March to one familiar to the Phillies: Scott Boras.
The super agent Boras represents several big-name Phillies, including Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos and Rhys Hoskins. The Phils signed Harper and Castellanos each in free agency. They have a history with Boras.
Minnesota reportedly is "definitely motivated" to re-sign Correa, but can the Twins compete with the major markets? Correa will be seeking a lot of money over a long time.
The résumé offers a convincing case. If the price is right, the fit might be too for the Phillies.
FanGraphs recently projected a Correa contract will be in the range of seven years, $250.8 million.
