The 5 biggest moments in Phillies' Game 3 win over Braves, according to the data
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- The Phillies had a wealth of big moments Wednesday in their 10-2 win over the Braves in Game 3 of the National League Division Series. Picking just a few could be tricky.
The Phillies hit six home runs on their way to taking a 2-1 series lead in the NLDS. That's a lot of big moments to separate from one another. That's where Fangraphs' win expectancy statistic comes in.
For every game, the baseball analytics site publishes a breakdown of each team's likelihood of winning the game that is updated after each batter. According to the site, this number is based on the score, inning, outs, runners on base and the "run environment," or the number of runs likely to be scored in a game between two average teams.
As you'll see, not all of these plays came with the Phillies at the plate. The Braves led briefly in the third inning, and the plays leading up to that run had a significant impact on each team's likelihood of winning at that time. Of course, those plays were quickly overshadowed, but we'll get to that.
5. Ronald Acuña Jr.'s double
Top of the 3rd, 1 out, bases empty
Before: No score, 52.5% Phillies win expectancy
After: No score, 48% Phillies win expectancy
Change: 4.5 points
This shift in win expectancy marked the first serious scoring chance of the game, as Acuña's first hit of the series put him in scoring position with less than two outs. He didn't have to wait there long.
4. Ozzie Albies' RBI single
Top of the 3rd, 1 out, runner on 2nd
Before: No score, 48.0% Phillies win expectancy
After: Braves lead 1-0, 38.9% Phillies win expectancy
Change: 9.1 points
Albies immediately followed Acuña with a base hit to plate the game's first run. It's a sight familiar to Braves fans: Acuña scored on 22 of Albies's 109 regular-season RBIs. The Braves' win expectancy Wednesday night would never be higher than the 61.1% they held after this play.
3. J.T. Realmuto's two-run double
Bottom of the 3rd, 2 outs, runners on 1st and 2nd
Before: Phillies lead 4-1, 83.2% Phillies win expectancy
After: Phillies lead 6-1, 92.6% Phillies win expectancy
Change: 9.4 points
This was the cherry on top of the massive third inning that cracked Game 3 wide open for the home team. A few batters after the game's biggest swing -- more on that in a minute -- Realmuto welcomed reliever Michael Tonkin into the game by hammering a double into the left-center field gap to drive home two runners. What was already a very likely Phillies win became a near-certainty.
2. Nick Castellanos's solo home run
Bottom of the 3rd, 0 outs, bases empty
Before: Braves lead 1-0, 44% Phillies win expectancy
After: Game tied 1-1, 55.6% Phillies win expectancy
Change: 11.6 points
Though overshadowed by another home run later in the inning, the Castellanos home run brought Citizens Bank Park to a fever pitch for the first time Wednesday night, a needed response after the Braves drew first blood the half inning before.
The Phillies' win expectancy was below 50% prior to this Castellanos at-bat, and never again thereafter.
1. Bryce Harper's 3-run home run
Bottom of the 3rd, 2 outs, runners on first and third
Before: Game tied 1-1, 55.6% Phillies win expectancy
After: Phillies lead 4-1, 81.6% Phillies win expectancy
Change: 26 points
The first of two Harper home runs (and two staredowns of Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia), this one added 26 percentage points to the Phillies' win expectancy Wednesday, the most of any single play in the game.
The moonshot down the left field line traveled 408 feet and would have been a home run in all 30 MLB parks, according to Statcast.
