Will Philadelphia see a white Christmas this year? Here's what to expect across the region.
According to the National Weather Service, a white Christmas officially occurs when there is 1 inch or more of snow on the ground Christmas morning, and it doesn't need to snow on Christmas for that to happen. The last white Christmas for Philadelphia was in 2009 when there were 8 inches of snow left on the ground from the 22 inches of snow that fell on Dec. 19 that year. The last time it actually snowed an inch on Christmas was in 2002 when 1.1 inches fell.
In any given year, Philadelphia and areas near the I-95 corridor have an 11% chance for a white Christmas. That number drops as you head east with just a 7% chance down the Shore.
You have much better luck with the Lehigh Valley and Poconos where the chances climb to 19% and 33%.
If you are dreaming of a white Christmas in Philadelphia or much of the Delaware Valley this year, well ... it would take a Christmas miracle for that to happen. Our recent cold snaps have not been in sync with the storms that keep crossing the area. We keep flipping back and forth between warm and wet and cold and dry.
With less than a week away from the big holiday, the chances are diminishing rapidly with only two more storm chances before the 25th.
On Friday evening another storm will brush past parts of the area with rain showers. But if the cold air arrives before the rain ends, then flakes could fly in the Poconos and parts of the Lehigh Valley, maybe even as far east as Bucks and Burlington counties with a brief mix possible in Philadelphia.
Alas, the odds are low in the scenario, and little or no accumulation is expected if it happens.
Temperatures behind Friday's storm will be the coldest of the season with highs in the 20s by Sunday and lows in the single digits and teens. Perfect for snow! Unfortunately, the weekend will also be completely dry. The only hope for flakes would be lake-effect snow showers north and west of Philly.
By Christmas Eve on Tuesday, temperatures begin to climb back into the upper 30s and low 40s. A clipper type storm will pass the region that day and forecast models are hinting that some light snow or a mix may be possible in the Pennsylvania suburbs north and west of the city.
Right now, the outlook for Christmas Day on Wednesday includes highs on either side of 40 degrees with a chance of rain showers late in the day. Basically, a snowless Christmas.
However, we are still a week away, and things could shift a bit, so as they say in the Jim Carrey movie "Dumb and Dumber," you've got a chance. It may be a million in one chance, but it's still a chance.
Winter officially begins Saturday, with the first official full day of winter Sunday. It will be bitterly cold, mostly sunny and very dry.
Stay with the NEXT Weather team for updates to the forecast. See more Christmas weather history here.
