Which way will Pennsylvania swing in 2024 election? Northampton County could hold the answer
EASTON, Pa. (CBS) — The road to the White House in 2024 likely runs through Pennsylvania. As Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump jockey for votes in seven key swing states, Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes stand out.
Everyone wants to know which way the state will swing in November, and one place may provide some answers: Northampton County.
"I'm not a political pundit, but history is what it is," Lamont McClure, a Northampton County executive, said. "And we usually call it the right way here."
Northampton County certainly has history on its side. In 2016, Northampton County swung for Trump after backing former President Barack Obama twice, just as the state did. Pennsylvania swang back blue for President Biden four years later, as did Northampton County. The county has matched the state's presidential pick in every election dating back to 1948, when Northampton County broke for Democrat Harry Truman while the state swung for Republican Thomas Dewey.
Truman would win that 1948 election, showing Northampton County is also pretty good at picking presidents. The state has voted for the person who ultimately won the presidency in all but three elections since 1920.
With much focus on Pennsylvania during the 2024 election's homestretch, county officials say they're getting quite the reputation.
"We have crews from China and Europe wanting to come here to interview us about our processes as if this is some magic 8 ball or the bottom of a teacup to read the leaves," McClure said. "It's not."
Instead, McClure says Northampton County is more of a reflection of the state itself. Party registration is very closely divided, with McClure saying Democrats have a slight edge. The county has urban areas like Bethlehem and Easton and more rural areas to the north.
"Above [Route] 22 is pretty much ruby red in Northampton County. And along 22 becomes like a lighter blue. And below, especially in the City of Bethlehem, it becomes a dark blue," McClure said. "We're very purple, and Pennsylvania is very purple. So our demographics are very similar to the demographics in the rest of the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. So, generally speaking overall, the way we vote is the way the rest of the commonwealth's going to come out overall."
Political analysts know the importance of this area to winning in Pennsylvania, and they'll be watching it closely.
"Much of the action is going to be right in here, including in the Lehigh Valley," said CBS News Director of Elections and Surveys Anthony Salvanto, referring to a swath of southeastern and east-central Pennsylvania from Northampton County south to Philadelphia.
That raises the question: What are Northampton County voters thinking about the 2024 race for the White House? We spent Tuesday afternoon in downtown Easton talking with them to find out.
"It's definitely a tough decision," Cristian Duarte, a small business owner from Bethlehem Township, said.
"I'm a ball of anxiety," Nick Loessy, a Harris supporter from Easton, said.
"I'm real confused," Melissa Mazgajewski from Walnutport said.
Some voters we spoke with Tuesday say their minds have been made up for a while.
Loessy is backing Harris, saying he would vote for anybody but Trump. John McCann of Easton said he's supporting the former president because he believes he's "the most qualified" for the job.
But most people we talked with around Centre Square were still undecided.
"What [Trump] did in his term to really help boost the economy," Duarte said. "And then, you know, you hear all the crazy. So it sways you in a different direction."
"Kamala had an opportunity to change things the last four years, and she didn't," Mazgajewski said. "Trump had an opportunity to do better as far as promoting himself and he didn't. So it's like, who do you choose?"
"I don't really think either one of the candidates we have so far is super. I don't know, they're not really doing anything for my needs," Nick Chun of Easton said.
But all of these undecided voters we spoke with Tuesday say they do plan on voting in November.
The economy was top of mind for voters in Easton, with multiple people saying they're looking for a candidate who will make life more affordable. Reproductive rights were another issue that came up.
In 2020, there was a tight race between President Biden and Trump in Pennsylvania, which carried over to Northampton County, and Biden won the bellwether area by just over 1,200 votes.
Voters say they expect more of the same this time around. With 42 days to decide, many tell us it'll likely come down to the wire.
"I'm trying to give both parties the chance to persuade me or get me on their side," Jordan from Easton said.
"Yeah, I'm there. I could sway in either direction," Duarte said.
However, McClure was the only person who wouldn't make a prediction, saying that this would only be a fair and secure election in Northampton County.
"Half of us aren't going to like the result," McClure said. "But as long as we all feel good about the process, I will consider that a victory for Northampton County."
