NFL Conference Championship Gambling Trends
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) --- This weekend is Championship Weekend in the NFL. In the first game on Sunday's double-header it's the Green Bay Packers at the defending champion Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Title Game. In game two, it's the Indianapolis Colts at the New England Patriots.
Lines per Bovada LV, trends per OddsShark:
Packers +7.5 at Seahawks, o/u 47
- Packers and Seahawks have met twice in playoffs, home team won both times (2004, 2008)
- Packers 2-6 SU as playoff underdogs since 1996
- Packers 1-8 SU & ATS last 9 games as road underdogs
- Packers 1-5 SU & ATS last 6 road games vs. NFC West
- Packers 1-3 ATS last 4 road games (2-2 SU)
- Packers 6-3 SU last 9 meetings with Seahawks (4-3-2 ATS)
- Seahawks have won eight straight as playoff favorites, 5-2-1 ATS
- Seahawks 7-0 SU last 7 games (6-0-1 ATS)
- Seahawks 5-0 SU & ATS last 5 home games vs. NFC North
- Seahawks 5-1 SU & ATS last 6 playoff games
- Seahawks 23-7 ATS last 30 home games (27-3 SU)
- OVER 6-3 in last 9 meetings
- OVER 4-0 in Green Bay's last 4 road games vs. NFC West
- OVER 8-3 in Green Bay's last 11 games as road underdog
- UNDER 3-0 in Green Bay's last 3 road games
- UNDER 3-1 in Seattle's last 4 home games
- OVER 9-2 in Seattle's last 11 home games vs. NFC North
Colts +7 at Patriots, o/u 54
- Patriots 0-5 ATS in conference championship round since 2005 (2-3 SU)
- Home team has won and covered four prior playoff meetings of Colts and Pats
- Colts 0-6 SU last 6 road games vs. AFC East (2-4 ATS)
- Colts 0-5 SU last 5 meetings with Patriots (2-3 ATS)
- Colts 3-8 SU & ATS last 11 road playoff games
- Colts 3-7 SU last 10 games as road underdogs (4-6 ATS)
- Patriots 3-9 ATS as playoff favorites since 2008
- Patriots 10-0 SU last 10 home games vs. AFC South (7-3 ATS)
- Patriots 17-1 SU last 18 home games (12-6 ATS)
- Patriots 4-10 ATS last 14 playoff games (7-7 SU)
- UNDER 10-3 in Indy's last 13 road playoff games (6-1 L7)
- OVER 6-0 in last 6 meetings
- OVER 9-1 in Indy's last 10 road games vs. AFC East (7-0 L7)
- OVER 6-0 in New England's last 6 home games vs. AFC South
- OVER 11-3 in New England's last 14 home games
Since 1998, there have been 12 instances where the Conference Title Games had a favorite of a touchdown or more (see the accompanying chart below of those games)
- The highest spread was St. Louis -15.5 over Tampa in 2000. They won 11-6
- Four times the spread has been in double digits since 1998 and each time the dog covered
- In the 12 games, the dog is 9-3 against the spread and 5-7 straight up
Prediction
NFC: Seahawks 24, Packers 16
AFC: Patriots 31, Colts 28
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