Nate Silver's Odds For Big 5 Teams In The NCAA Tournament
By Spike Eskin
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – Nate Silver is a really smart guy. Silver is a statistician who developed PECOTA, a statistic in baseball that predicts a player's performance in an upcoming season, as well as predicting all 50 states correctly in the 2012 Presidential election. His book, The Signal and The Noise, is about predictions, and what makes a good one (worth a read for sure).
Silver has written a piece for the New York Times outlining the probability for every team's success in this year's NCAA Tournament. His calculations predicted that Kentucky was the favorite in 2012, with a 26.7% chance of winning. Kentucky ended up winning the tournament last year.
This year, Louisville is Silver's favorite, with a 22.7% chance of winning, followed closely by Indiana at 19.6%.
Of the three Philadelphia teams in the tournament, he gives Villanova the best chance of advancing beyond the first round, but Temple has the best chance at the Final Four.
Nova has a 33% chance of making the round of 32, a 4% chance of making it to the Sweet 16, a 1.2% chance of ending up in the Elite 8, a .3% chance of making the Final Four, a .1% chance of being in the National Championship game, and a zero percent chance of winning it all.
Temple has a 28% chance of making the round of 32, a 2.4% chance of making it to the Sweet 16, a 1% chance of ending up in the Elite 8, a .5% chance of making the Final Four, a .1% chance of being in the National Championship game, and a zero percent chance of winning it all.
Finally, La Salle has a 53% chance of winning their game against Boise State, has a 12.2% chance of making the round of 32, a 3% chance of making it to the Sweet 16, a .5% chance of ending up in the Elite 8, a .1% chance of making the Final Four, a 0% chance of being in the National Championship game, and a zero percent chance of winning it all.
To read all of Silver's odds, as well as his explanation of his methods, visit the original article.
