As Harris running mate speculation continues, how much do vice presidential nominees matter in elections?
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – Speculation continues to swirl about who presumptive Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris will choose as her running mate this November, with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro seen as a possible pick.
At an event Tuesday at the Alan Horwitz "Sixth Man" Center in Philadelphia's Nicetown neighborhood, Shapiro continued to dodge questions about his engagement with that process, including whether he's interested in the job.
"I've said this before, I'll say it again: the vice president has a very deeply personal decision to make right now: who she wants to run with, who she wants to govern with, and who can be by her side when she has to make the toughest decisions for the American people," Shapiro said. "I trust that she will make that decision on her own terms when she is ready."
Shapiro did not say he isn't vying for the position, as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper withdrew from consideration this week. Shapiro again said he hasn't spoken directly with Harris since July 21, the day President Biden left the race, but would not say if he's spoken with Harris' team.
A pick is expected by Monday, CBS News has learned.
There has been high interest in who Harris will choose for her race against former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance. But all the hype begs the question: Do vice president nominees have a real impact on elections? Historically, West Chester University political science professor John Kennedy says, not really.
"Research indicates that overall, it has a negligible, if any, effect on final results," Kennedy said.
But Kennedy notes that 2024 isn't a normal year. Vote tallies have been close in the past two presidential election cycles and with this year's race expected to be another tight one, the right running mate can make a difference.
"I would say yes, in a sense because we are in a very close, competitive environment," Kennedy said. "When you're talking about the movement of a few thousand votes, changing who wins a state, obviously that can make a big difference."
Kennedy pointed to Trump's selection of Mike Pence as his vice presidential nominee in 2016, which he says likely helped lock up support with Evangelical voters. Then there's the 1960 race.
"In 1960, LBJ on the Democratic ticket with John F. Kennedy, who brought in Texas, which was, of course, exceedingly important," Kennedy said.
Then there have been the not-so-great vice presidential picks.
"Thomas Eagleton in 1972, who was ultimately dumped from the McGovern campaign. Dan Quayle in 1992. Sarah Palin in 2008," Kennedy said. "None of those vice presidential nominations worked out very well. But on the other hand, they didn't really change the outcome anyway."
Kennedy says the VP selections are likely important this year on both sides of the race.
For Trump, Vance was able to relate to Rust Belt voters in Ohio to win his 2022 Senate race, something the campaign hopes will translate to key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
However, Vance is a political newcomer, having spent roughly a year and a half as a lawmaker. In the past week, that inexperience has shown.
"The last week has been difficult for JD Vance," Kennedy said.
Vance has been criticized for several past comments, notably questions over his stance on families versus Americans without children. He previously referred to Harris and other Democrats as "childless cat ladies." Kennedy says it's important for Vance to turn that narrative around and get back on offense.
"That is primarily the job during the campaign for the vice presidential candidate. You need to be able to forcefully attack your opponent," Kennedy said. "When you're on the defense in politics, you're losing."
For Harris, Kennedy says the nominee is important because it is her first major decision while leading a ticket. And it's one she'll have to make with a shorter-than-usual window to vet candidates. While Kennedy believes Shapiro is likely one of the front-runners for that role, he acknowledges there are several things the presumptive Democratic nominee will have to weigh.
"It might come down to a question of delivering a state, such as Pennsylvania, i.e. Josh Shapiro the governor. Or a candidate who might have broader appeal nationwide, perhaps such as maybe Mark Kelly, the senator from Arizona," Kennedy said.
But Kennedy says there is one thing every presidential nominee should be thinking about when they choose their running mate.
"The one thing you want to avoid at all costs is selecting someone who is going to hurt your campaign," Kennedy said.
