Economist Says Brexit Will Not Have Long-Term Effect On U.S
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- The sudden Brexit jolt creates uncertainty, but a local economist expects U.S. markets to weather the storm.
While the UK could fall into a "moderate recession," Ryan Sweet, the director of real-time economics and Moody's Analytics in West Chester says "the overall effect on our economy should be very small."
"The primary channels through which the Brexit could affect the U.S. economy are financial market conditions, consumer and business confidence and trade."
The most immediate concerns are U.S financial markets, which may take several trading days to settle down, according to Sweet.
"Global financial markets will most likely have a rough day. It's not necessarily where they are today, Monday or Tuesday, it's how financial market conditions are a week, two weeks from now."
He'll be monitoring business and consumer confidence, "if the Brexit triggers a 10 percent garden variety correction in U.S equity prices." That, he says, would shave about half-a-percentage point off of GDP growth over the course of a year, and nudge the unemployment rate a bit higher.
On the trade front, Sweet says only about 4 percent of U.S. exports go to the UK, which is a small portion of the U.S. economy, anyway.
