Confidence Increasing On Potential Weekend Nor'easter
By Kate Bilo and Steven Strouss
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- Areas of freezing fog and freezing drizzle are expected to develop overnight as our clipper departs. As a result, the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 8AM Thursday for most of the area.
Here is a look at some of the snowfall totals across the region. The highest amounts were in southern NJ and Delaware while lower amounts were measured in PA and north of Philadelphia.
In Delaware...
Smyrna 2.7", Magnolia 2.5", Dover 1.8", New Castle 1.2", Lewes 1.0", Hockessin .7", Claymont .4"
In PA...
Kutztown 2.2", New Tripoli 1.7", Media .6", Wayne .5", Philadelphia .5", Jenkintown .1"
In NJ...
Seaville 3.0", Vineland 2.8", Manahawkin 2.5", Goshen 2.5", Cape May 2.0", Mt. Holly .5", Ewing .4",
If you didn't get the snow you wanted out of this system, there will be plenty of other chances.
Let's talk about Saturday. I'll get a little technical here if that's okay, and provide a TL;DR version at the end.
Confidence is increasing on a potential nor'easter moving up the eastern seaboard on Sunday. This storm will intensify rapidly off the east coast, and as it does so it will produce very strong winds and heavy precipitation. Today's model runs don't show a ton of consistency - the midday European run was a snow-lover's dream, providing the ideal track for heavy wet snow right along the I-95 corridor. The GFS model continues to tout a more easterly track, putting the storm a bit further offshore and thus keeping the snow limited to I-95 on east, with lesser amounts. The latest run of the NAM split the difference a bit.
It's easy to look at a run like today's Euro and think this is the big one. The Euro is typically one of the best models in the medium-range and performs very well 3-4 days out. But looking at the European ensemble models, there is still discrepancy. More than half of them have a major East Coast storm, but others have a complete miss or a further west track which shifts the heavy snow back west of I-95.
Also there are several limiting factors that we need to consider.
First. There is no block in place. In an ideal nor'easter situation, you've got a big cold high planted firmly to the north and west which helps the storm recurve up the coast. We don't have that. Second. You don't have a fresh injection of arctic air. You've got some cold, but it's stale cold. And while rapidly strengthening storms do tend to create some of their own cold air, you're also dealing with relatively mild ocean water temperatures offshore. Third. this is a fast-moving pattern - the storm will be progressive and hit quickly. And finally. Temperatures will warm during the course of the storm, causing a potential mixover or changeover with rain, and with marginal temps, we could be looking at ratios as low as 8:1.
These are all reasons to continue monitoring the model runs and the storm's development and not sound the "monster storm" alarm too soon.
TL;DR It's too early to call right now, but if the perfect track sets up as posited by today's Euro, we could easily be looking at 6+" of snow in spots. I think much of the area at the very least will see 3". You'll want to keep a close eye on the weekend, especially if you have any plans that require you to be out on the roads. We expect to be able to put our first call snow maps out by tomorrow evening, hopefully seeing a consensus developing on the models.
