Can The Phillies Win In 2011 Without Chase Utley?
PHILADELPHIA (CBS)--The numbers have been steadily dropping since about mid-January. Some had it around 116. Others had it around 105 to 107. It wasn't so much a question of if the Phillies would win their fifth-straight National League East Division title, and reach the World Series for the third time in four years. These were already assumed before a pitch was thrown.
Back in mid-January, it was a matter of how many games the Phils would win in 2011.
After the euphoria of the Cliff Lee signing wore off, a gripping reality began emerging around the middle of Spring Training. The 2011 Phillies were beginning to take shape sans one key component, all-star second baseman Chase Utley. The Phils had already parted ways with starting rightfielder Jayson Werth—and the two combined, even Utley in a down year (due to his thumb injury), accounted for 43 homers and 150 RBIs out of the 2011 Opening Day lineup.
Another reality about 2011 is taking shape before Opening Day kicks in tomorrow afternoon at 1 p.m. at Citizens Bank Park against the Houston Astros. The ideal number, once believed by some to be around 116, has dropped precipitously.
The Phillies have the best starting pitching—on paper—in franchise history in Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, Joe Blanton and Lee. They also have a veteran team with many players on the down sides of their careers, the nucleus (Jimmy Rollin, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez and Utley) of which is coming off uncharacteristic sub par seasons in 2010.
The gap between the Phillies and Atlanta Braves has shrunk, some might say considerably. That's factoring in the absence of Utley, Brad Lidge and Domonic Brown in the beginning of the season. And that's also factoring in Halladay, Hamels, Lee and Oswalt staying healthy an entire season.
But the Phillies are a team that will need to reinvent themselves from an offensive-oriented club that used to pummel opposing teams, to a pitching, finesse team that may have to scratch out 3-2, 4-3 victories this year.
Are the 2011 Phillies capable of doing that? Are they ready to do that?
"I think we have the kind of offense that can win close games like that," Phils' centerfielder Shane Victorino said. "You know we're going to be in every game with the pitching we have. We have enough talent to win again. We won 97 games last year and that's with a lot of guys that had down years. A lot of guys have come in here in great shape."
A key determining gauge will be the health of Utley, who's been battling patellar tendinitis, chondromalacia and bone inflammation in his right knee all spring, and hadn't appeared in a game, taking ground balls in a lawn chair and some batting practice.
Utley's absence leaves a gaping power hole in the middle of the Phils' lineup, and to some degree exposes Howard, who will have Rollins batting before him in the third hole, followed by the left-handed Ibanez, likely batting fifth in the Season Opener against right-handed starter and former Phil Brett Myers.
While Wilson Valdez is expected to spell Utley, and Ben Francisco is the Opening Day rightfielder, here's an interesting thought about run production: Last year's Opening Day lineup (Rollins, Placido Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Victorino and Carlos Ruiz) accounted for 196 home runs and 680 runs batted in from the previous season. As for tomorrow's Opening Day lineup (Victorino, Polanco, Rollins, Howard, Ibanez, Francisco, Ruiz and Valdez)? How about 97 homers and 469 RBIs based on 2010.
That's a Grand Canyon-like plunge. Hopefully, Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels and Blanton will be able to take on the brunt of making the Phillies go at least the first few months of the season while Utley and Brown mend.
It's not like the Phils have been beset with obstacles before, right?
"There is a winning attitude in this clubhouse," Victorino said. "All these guys in here have won before, and they know how to win again. Sure, you want Chase and Lidge ready to go, but we can't worry about who we don't have on the field. We have to play with who we do have. Other guys have stepped up in the past. They can do it again. We know how to win."
Reported by: Joseph Santoliquito
