Betting $100 On The Belmont Stakes
By: Kevin Martin
I'll Have Another will be trying to make history on Saturday and bettors will be trying to make a buck. The Belmont Stakes has produced some huge paydays for horseplayers who got it right in recent years. So, we asked a group of experienced handicappers how they would play a $100 bankroll on this year's race.
Win, place, and show bets are the oldest and most well known wager type, but exotic bets offer horseplayers countless ways to bet the races. Most of our experts constructed their bets around exoctic wagers. The three most common exoctic bets require players to pick the top two (exacta), three (trifecta), or four (superfecta) finishers in an individual race. These bets can be boxed so your picks can finish in any order. Selections can also be keyed or wheeled which means you pick a single horse or multiple horses in the win, place, or show position in your bet. For example, you could choose one horse to finish first and three other horses to finish second on an exacta key ticket. If you would like more detailed explanation, I encourage you to check out Hello Race Fans' Types of Wagers and Pools.
Here is how our five handicappers decided to play their $100 bankroll on this year's Belmont Stakes:
Brian Nadeau is a freelance handicapper and Horseplayernow's New York handicapper
Strategy
I'll Have Another goes for history and is bound to offer underlaid odds, so with a few factors going against him I'll be trying to pull the upset with Dullahan. At 5-1 or better, Dullahan is worth betting in the win pool, but I'll look to make a bigger score and key him in the trifecta and superfecta. With $100 as a budget I'll key Dullahan in the top slot of both the trifecta and superfecta, while using Paynter, I'll Have Another, Union Rags, Street Life and My Adonis underneath him. While it may seem complicated to a novice, the bet is pretty simple. Basically, if Dullahan wins and any of the five horses run second and third in the trifecta or second, third and fourth in the superfecta, I'll cash a winning ticket. I'll also bet $20 on Dullahan in the win pool, to ensure I still make a profit should he win (assuming he's 4-1 or higher) and I don't connect in the trifecta or superfecta.
The $100 Wager
$1 trifecta:
Dullahan (5) over
Payntor (9), I'll Have Another (11), Union Rags (3), Street Life (1), My Adonis (12) over
Payntor (9), I'll Have Another (11), Union Rags (3), Street Life (1), My Adonis (12)
$1 superfecta:
Dullahan (5) over
Payntor (9), I'll Have Another (11), Union Rags (3), Street Life (1), My Adonis (12) over
Payntor (9), I'll Have Another (11), Union Rags (3), Street Life (1), My Adonis (12) over
Payntor (9), I'll Have Another (11), Union Rags (3), Street Life (1), My Adonis (12)
$20 win:
Dullahan (5)
How to place the bet and what it will cost you
$1 trifecta 5 with 1,3,9,11,12 with 1,3,9,11,12 = $20
[The above bet equals 20 combinations and therefore will cost $20]
$1 superfecta 5 with 1,3,9,11,12 with 1,3,9,11,12 with 1,3,9,11,12 = $60
$20 win on the 5 = $20
__________
Jessica Chapel is the web editor for the Breeders' Cup, a contributing editor to Hello Race Fans, and blogs about racing as Railbird.
Strategy
The Belmont Stakes is usually the classic race to look for upsets and longshots, but this year might be a little different. Not only because I'll Have Another appears a legitimate favorite, but because this group of 3-year-olds have been a pretty consistent bunch. For those reasons, I'm planning to play the Belmont with I'll Have Another winning or placing, and concentrate on one horse in particular -- Paynter -- as a Triple Crown spoiler. Paynter, trained by Bob Baffert, is fresh, having raced only four times this year, and has a Belmont distance-friendly pedigree. The place pool likely will be the only pool to offer any value on I'll Have Another, with souvenir hunters playing him to win and the cautious playing him to show. In my exacta bet with I'll Have Another on top, I'll exclude Dullahan and Union Rags because those combos figure to be heavily bet.
The $100 Wager
$3 exacta:
I'll Have Another (11) over
Paynter (9), Street Life (1), Unstoppable U (2), Atigun (4), Ravelo's Boy (6), Five Sixteen (7), Guyana Star Dweej (8), Optimizer (10), and My Adonis (12)
$4 exacta:
Paynter (9), Dullahan (5), Union Rags (3), and Optimizer (10) over
I'll Have Another (11)
$20 win:
Paynter (9)
$30 place:
I'll Have Another (11)
How to place the bet and what it will cost you
$3 exacta 11 with 1,2,4,6,7,8,9,10,12 = $27
$4 exacta 3,5,9,10 with 11 = $16
$23 to win on the 9 = $23
$34 to place on the 11 = $34
__________
Gene Kershner writes about racing for the The Buffalo News and his blog EquiSpace.
Strategy
The Belmont field has only three graded stakes winners among the 12 contenders and I believe that the cream will ultimately rise to the top. I think it is a 2-horse race wherein Paynter and/or Street Life could sneak into the trifecta. I'll back up my exacta postion with a trifecta bet keying Dullahan and I'll Have Another in the top two spots and adding Paynter in the place and show positions and Street Life in the show spot.
The $100 Wager
$30 exacta Box:
I'll Have Another (11), Dullahan (5)
$5 trifecta:
Dullahan (5), I'll Have Another (11) over
Dullahan (5), Payntor (9), I'll Have Another (11) over
Dullahan (5), Payntor (9), I'll Have Another (11) Street Life (1)
How to place the bet and what it will cost you
$30 exacta box 11, 5 = $60
$5 trifecta the 5,11 with 5,9,11 with 1,5,9,11 = $40
__________
Valerie Grash writes about racing at Foolish Pleasure and Fillies First. She is the founder of TURF and a contributing editor at Hello Race Fans.
Strategy
More than previous performance, a strong stamina pedigree dictates my Belmont Stakes wagering, so I'm forming my wagers using those horses whose breeding indicate 1 1/2 miles is well within their grasp: Dullahan, I'll Have Another, Paynter, Street Life, and Union Rags. My $2 win, place, and show longshot bets are on those with stamina pedigrees, but performance or class issues: Five Sixteen, Guyana Star Dweej, and Optimizer. Hey, they probably won't hit the board, but for less than $20, it's worth a shot at long odds.
The $100 Wager
$1 trifecta box:
Street Life (1), Dullahan (5), Five Sixteen (7), Paynter (9), I'll Have Another (11)
$1 exacta box:
Dullahan (5) and Paynter (9) = $2
$10 win and place:
Dullahan (5) = $20
$2 win, place, and show:
Five Sixteen (7), Guyana Star Dweej (8), Optimizer (10) = $18
How to place the bet and what it will cost you
$1 trifecta box 1,5,7,9,11 = $60
$1 exacta box 5,9 = $2
$10 win and place on the 5 = $20
$2 win, place, show on the 7,8,10 = $18
__________
Derek Simon is a fulltime business/sports writer who writes a weekly column and hosts a weekly podcast for TwinSpires.com. Derek's latest column is available at TwinSpires and he also has a 2012 Belmont Stakes Betting Guide available at Brisnet.
Strategy
If history has taught us anything it's that one should seek value in the Belmont Stakes — especially when a Triple Crown is on the line. Since 2000, simply betting morning line overlays (horses with post-time odds greater than their morning line odds) in the "Test of Champions" has produced a return on investment of 211 percent. So, while I'll Have Another certainly looks tough to beat, I'm guessing his odds will reflect that fact. Hence, he's an exotics-only play for me. I think that the front-running Paynter has a big chance in the Big Apple. He's my top value play if he goes off at odds of 8-1 or greater. I also like Atigun, who was one of the few deep closers to win on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs. I'll definitely use him at the right price (20-1 or greater).
The $100 Wager
$1 trifecta:
Atigun (4), Paynter (9) over
Paynter (9), I'll Have Another (11) over
Street Life (1), Union Rags (3), Atigun (4), Dullahan (5), Guyana Star Dweej (8), Paynter (9), I'll Have Another (11)
$1 trifecta:
I'll Have Another (11) over
Union Rags (3), Atigun (4), Paynter (9) over
Steet Life (1), Union Rags (3), Atigun (4), Dullahan (5), Guyana Star Dweej (8), Paynter (9)
$2 exacta box:
Union Rags (3), Atigun (4), Paynter (9), I'll Have Another (11)
$32 to win:
Paynter (9)
$14 to win:
Atigun (4)
How to place the bet and what it will cost you
$1 trifecta 4, 9 with 9, 11 with 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11 = $15
$1 trifecta 11 with 3, 4, 9 with 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9 = $15
$2 exacta box 3, 4, 9, 11 = $24
$32 win on 9 = $32
$14 win on 4 = $14
For more detailed explanation of wagering types and strategy, visit Hello Race Fans' Types of Wagers and Pools. You can get a quick rundown of all the entries for the Belmont from the Hello Race Fans' Belmont Cheat Sheet.
Kevin Martin is the CEO of the racing history site Colin's Ghost, a contributing editor at Hello Race Fans, and a founding member of TURF.
