Lauren Boebert expected to win Colorado Congressional District 4 primary but it's not a slam dunk
One of the most watched races in Colorado and nationally will be the Republican primary in Congressional District 4 - the district Republican Ken Buck represented before retiring in March. Rep. Lauren Boebert is the presumed front-runner in the six-way race, but this isn't a slam dunk for her.
Boebert abandoned her seat in Congressional District 3 - after nearly losing to Democrat Adam Frisch in 2022 - to run in CD4, which is the most conservative district in the state.
Nearly half of voters in the district are in Douglas County, where Republicans are less MAGA and more mainstream.
While there are nearly twice as many Republicans as Democrats in the county, Trump only won Douglas County by 7 points in 2020.
But it's the unaffiliated voters who will likely be the deciding factor. They outnumber republicans and democrats in the district and many of them are anti-MAGA.
Meanwhile, Boebert is a die-hard Trump devotee and is endorsed by the former president.
Her biggest threat may be from conservative radio talk show host Deborah Flora, who is from Douglas County and has the support of many conservative women. Women consistently outvote men in Colorado.
Among the women backing Flora is Boebert's 2020 Communications Director Laura Carno, a veteran Republican strategist who says Flora is a constitutional conservative who won't be distracted by drama or scandals, which have come to define Boebert's tenure in Congress.
Boebert says she switched districts because she needed a fresh start. On Tuesday, voters will decide if she gets one.
The race is drawing national attention too. Not only will it decide Boebert's political future, but it will also test whether the MAGA crowd backs all MAGA candidates or just the premier MAGA candidate - Donald Trump.
It will also further define the Colorado Republican Party, which will determine its fate in a state Trump lost by 13 points in 2020.
