Incentives to ditch fossil fuels abundant in Colorado, is non-carbon electric grid even possible?

"Drill, baby, drill," President Donald Trump echoed in the U.S. Capitol rotunda during a speech immediately following his inauguration. On day one of his presidency, Trump declared a national energy emergency as part of his administration's plan to ramp up domestic energy production and create jobs.

Colorado ranks among the top 10 states in total energy production, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. While Colorado has some ambitious goals for a greener future, with rapid growth comes an unprecedented demand.

Trump signed a sweeping order to unleash American energy, directing federal agencies to simplify and expedite permits for drilling on federal lands and waters. 

In Larimer County, the Platte River Power Authority hasn't felt any impacts from the new administration yet. But "we may see other utilities decide that they're not going to go with more renewables and that could leave a greater supply of renewable projects to choose from," says Melie Vincent, Chief Power Supply Officer with PRPA.

Energy demand forecasts have nearly doubled over the past decade. According to the Clean Grid Initiative's national load growth report, nationwide electricity demand forecasts shot up from 2.6% to 4.7% growth over the next five years. 

CBS Colorado obtained data that shows while the state is generating more renewable energy now than ever before, it's not as widely sold to customers for use. In fact, data from the EIA shows that Coloradans still consume electricity primarily generated by coal and natural gas. And even though solar power generation, 39%, outpaced coal at 32% in 2023, coal-powered electricity was still more widely consumed than its cleaner counterpart. 

Replacing coal with natural gas and renewables

A this or that mentality won't work when it comes to Colorado's energy. Industry experts tell CBS Colorado that future energy sources need to look more like a pie chart.

"One of the things that people don't realize is that natural gas-fired power plants have been replacing coal-fired power plants at a rapid scale across the United States' electric grid. As a result, carbon emissions from the U.S. electricity generation sector have drastically dropped over this time period. [And] natural gas replacing coal is actually one of the leading sources of emissions reductions in the past 10 to 15 years," says Mason Hamilton, Vice President of Economics and Research with the American Petroleum Institute.

And not only that, but renewable energy capacity -- or where energy comes from like coal or wind -- outpaces infrastructure. Utility companies across the country and Colorado are trying to build more power lines and renovate transformers in outdated neighborhoods. But not fast enough. According to a study from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, the scope of those lines, or distribution transformers, which are needed across residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation industries, needs to increase up to 260% from 2021 levels in order to meet electrification demands.

"The challenge with these goals is that setting a goal is easy. Enabling it and actually acting on it is a lot different," adds Hamilton. 

Demand for more energy

The demand for more energy comes as more people are buying electric vehicles and switching to induction stoves, and as technology like artificial intelligence expands.  

It's hard to miss rebates and tax credits incentivizing Colorado residents to ditch fossil fuels. In April of last year, Gov. Jared Polis, along with the Colorado Energy Office, announced $21 million in grants to create 290 fast-charging stations for electric vehicles across the state, increasing ports by 28%. Coloradans were also awarded a $450 tax credit for buying an electric bike, the nation's first statewide initiative. With the introduction of Colorado's electrification calculator, residents can figure out how to get discounts on electric appliances like heat pumps, electric panel upgrades, and more.

"A lot of these renewable energy goals were passed at a time when U.S. electricity demand was flat. And so it's easier when electricity demand is flat to retire a fossil fuel power plant and build a renewable power plant. But now that we're trying to electrify everything from our vehicles, [to] more devices in our homes, to things in the industry --  that makes it a lot harder to retire existing power plants and replace [them] with new ones," said Hamilton.  

Vincent tells CBS Colorado they are anticipating that increase and that it was incorporated into its integrated resource plan PRPA submitted last summer.

As the weather in our state and across the country becomes more extreme, so does our reliance on electricity. Scientists are now calling 2024 the hottest year on record. In fact, last year was the fourth warmest year for Colorado in 130 years of records, according to the Colorado Climate Center. Grand Junction, on the Western Slope, spent 94 days above 90 degrees in 2024, while Denver saw 51 days and Walsh, on the Eastern Plains, spent 82 days above 90. More days with extreme heat, mean more days with the air conditioner on blast.

And when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing, industry experts are working to master battery storage. "This time of year, you're going to be losing a lot of solar energy" during peak hours, which for PRPA is between 4 and 6 p.m., says Travis Hunter, Chief Generation and Transmission Officer. 

"When we have those moments where there are not enough washers running [or] there are not enough cars being charged, and we have this huge influx of wind power -- so more power being produced than we can actually consume -- we can put that in a battery storage device. And then we can hold that," says Vincent. 

She adds that there is some loss of energy when it goes through the process of storage. Many of the batteries are coming in four, six, or 10-hour durations, which is not ideal during a multi-day snowstorm.

Platte River buys power from a vendor who procures the batteries, which are made from the newest and most efficient type of lithium-ion technology. Large-scale storage means big batteries, which, like many other products used for renewable energy, are often made with materials produced by the oil and gas industry. 

"Something that I think people fail to realize is that a lot of technologies we're trying to build and deploy as part of the transition are actually still being made with products derived from petroleum or hydrocarbons and even natural gas," says Hamilton. The lithium batteries found in EVs all contain carbon on the negative side, even some AA batteries. 

What is the oil and gas industry doing to reduce our stronghold on carbon? API tells CBS Colorado they are "working to address the risks of climate change and build a lower carbon future, while simultaneously meeting the world's growing energy needs. [And the oil and gas industry is] expected to provide over half of the world energy needs in 2050."

Vincent tells CBS Colorado, PRPA is waiting for better battery technology and for the cost to come down. In the meantime, Platte River's Rawhide Energy Station Unit 1 operates coal and delivers about half the utility's energy. When it shuts down in 2029, the plant will add five aero-derivative turbines, which are similar to jet engines to fill the gaps in energy. "The benefit around the aero-derivative is that they start really quickly. So we can bring them online in right around five minutes. The current technology we have at the plant we cannot do that," says Hunter.

Where can we go from here? 

"We're really starting to see what the implications of policy decisions are in terms of increased budgets around beneficial electrification. I'm really hoping we can take the time to let some of this work through the process before we think about adding to it," says Jennifer Gremmert, CEO of Energy Outreach Colorado, an organization helping households make sense of all the change. "How do you balance all those needs from a resource perspective while you're trying to add new technology and meet different policy demands?"

Gremmert agrees there is a natural tension between the goals of reducing carbon and having affordable energy. As Hamilton is quick to point out, policies that restrict supply, but don't address demand, end up causing their own set of problems.

"Those policies that restrict supply are kind of like failures of policies similar to prohibition. The United States banned the sale of alcohol in the 1920s, but it didn't get rid of demand. There was still demand and that policy failure gave rise to things like Al Capone and gangsters and speakeasies."

Among all the experts CBS Colorado talked to, the theme has been collaboration and flexibility. Because without that teamwork, we're told Colorado's lofty renewable goals will only remain a pipe dream.