Phillies free agency: The case for Xander Bogaerts
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- The Phillies have a vacancy up the middle, and Trea Turner is the apple of fans' eyes. Turner was the pick here, but he's one of four headlining free agent shortstops.
Over the course of the next week, CBS Philadelphia will look at the other three, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson.
The case for Xander Bogaerts
Age: 30
Bats/throws: R/R
2022 team: Boston Red Sox
Bogaerts opted out of the final three years of a six-year, $120 million extension he signed with Boston in 2019 when Dave Dombrowski was the Red Sox's president of baseball operations. Like Turner with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Kevin Long, Bogaerts has a Phillies connection.
The Bogaerts-Dombrowski link may be exaggerated, like Turner's with Harper and Co. Jon Heyman, a baseball analyst for MLB Network, recently loosely connected the Phils with Bogaerts.
On Nov. 12, Heyman tweeted, "Phillies are believed to have real interest in Xander Bogaerts, Phils honcho Dave Dombrowski has strong link to Bogaerts from his Boston days."
Phillies are believed to have real interest in Xander Bogaerts, Phils honcho Dave Dombrowski has strong link to Bogaerts from his Boston days.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 13, 2022
Bogaerts, like Turner, played half of a season with Schwarber.
It's important to note. As the baseball winter progresses, it's silly season with agents selling their clients and teams playing the market. Rumors will fly. Ingest them with a grain of salt.
The player
Bogaerts comes with an impressive résumé. He's a four-time All-Star, making the Midsummer Classic in the last three non-COVID-19-shortened seasons, and a five-time Silver Slugger.
Signed as an amateur free agent out of Aruba, Bogaerts made his Red Sox debut in 2013 as a 20-year-old. Ten seasons later, Bogaerts enters free agency as one of the top prizes on the market.
In 2022, the righty-hitting shortstop hit .307/.377/.456 with a .833 OPS and 131 OPS+ (meaning he was 31 percent better than average). He slugged 15 home runs and 38 doubles and collected 171 hits while knocking in 73 runs in 150 games.
Bogaerts' .833 OPS, .377 on-base percentage and .362 BABIP led all major league shortstops. Baseball-Reference graded Bogaerts as a 5.8 Wins Above Replacement player, while FanGraphs ranked him as a 6.1 WAR player.
Since 2019, Bogaerts has a .304 average with a .879 OPS and 133 OPS+.
Among big league shortstops who have played at least 85% of their games at the position since 2019, Bogaerts leads all in RBI (297), OBP (.376), doubles (132) and walks (216).
The fit
When the Phillies declined second baseman Jean Segura's club option, they created an opening in their middle infield. Bryson Stott proved himself capable as an everyday player in his rookie season and played an adequate shortstop, but the team appears open to moving the 25-year-old over to second base.
If Spring Training began today, Stott and shortstop Edmundo Sosa would enter camp as the double-play tandem. Dombrowski hinted the club is open to a Stott-Sosa middle infield but kept the door wide open for one of the top shortstops.
Enter Bogaerts.
The allure of adding a big-name shortstop is simple: lengthening an already long lineup and shoring up a premium position defensively.
Of the Big Four, Bogaerts arguably comes with the most questions in the field. He could be the first one to move off shortstop over the course of a long-term contract, but he is coming off his best defensive since he was 22, finishing as a Gold Glove finalist.
Last season, Bogaerts finished the season with four Defensive Runs Saved and five Outs Above Average. It was the first season in his career he's finished as a plus DRS shortstop and the first time since 2017 he finished with a positive OAA.
FanGraphs and The Athletic have good breakdowns on his defensive breakout in 2022.
Offensively, Bogaerts is a consistent hitter who makes contact, something the top of the lineup could certainly use. The Phillies set a World Series record by striking out 71 times against the Houston Astros.
Bogaerts made contact with 76.9% of his swings in 2022, according to FanGraphs, and has a career 79.8% contact percentage. He also has a career .336 BABIP.
He has hit .300 or better in four of his 10 MLB seasons and three of the past four. He has a .299 average since 2015, his second full major league season. He gets on base, he slugs and he hits.
With Bryce Harper presumably out for a while because of UCL surgery, the Phillies would be able to pencil Bogaerts into the two or the slots in the lineup. When Harper returns, Bogaerts would fit nicely as the two-hitter behind Schwarber.
There certainly is a fit on paper.
FanGraphs recently projected a Bogaerts contract will be in the range of six years, $172.8 million.