Phillies free agency: The case for Dansby Swanson
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- Five years ago, John Middleton blurted out that the Phillies were ready to spend "stupid money." Middleton followed through in the years since.
Since 2019, the Phillies have spent big money. Some names include Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Throw in Didi Gregorious, Andrew McCutchen and the yearly bullpen rebuilding, and the bill rises exponentially.
The Phillies were two wins away from winning the World Series in 2022.
Dave Dombrowski, the team's president of baseball operations, said last week the Phillies have the payroll flexibility to "push the needle to try to win" despite paying the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history. The Phillies do not appear to be tightening the wallet this winter.
With a hole up the middle, CBS Philadelphia is breaking down the big-ticket shortstop market, an area rich with talent and a position of need for the Phillies.
We've looked at Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner. The two others are Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson.
The case for Dansby Swanson
Age: 28
Bats/throws: R/R
2022 team: Atlanta Braves
Unlike the many other homegrown Braves locked up before free agency, Swanson finds himself in the same shoes as Freddie Freeman last winter: a longtime Atlanta staple who hit the market.
The 28-year-old is free to sign elsewhere but could return to the Braves. Swanson made it this far, which is rare for a young, core piece with Alex Anthopoulos as head honcho in Atlanta.
Freeman was the face of the Braves. Yet, Anthopoulos chose to trade for Matt Olson last winter and closed the door on Freeman. Freeman signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Since Swanson hit the open market, the door is wide open for the shortstop to leave Atlanta.
The player
Swanson is from Kennesaw, Georgia, a 39-minute drive from Atlanta. He was drafted first overall out of Vanderbilt University in 2015 by the Arizona Diamondbacks, only to be traded to the Braves six months later. He made his major league debut in August 2016.
After starring at Vanderbilt, Swanson's first three seasons were mired in inconsistency. From 2016-2018, Swanson hit .243 with an 81 OPS+ (meaning he was 19 percent below average).
A wrist injury slowed down in 2018. Swanson began the season with hits in four of his first six games and had a .977 OPS through 16 games before landing on the injured list on May 4. Outside a 21-game stretch from the middle of August to early September, 2018 was filled with growing pains.
2019 was better for Swanson, with a .748 OPS in 127 games, but the 2020 COVID-19-shortened season is when he began figuring it out at the plate.
From 2020-2022, Swanson has a .775 OPS and 108 OPS in 382 games out of a possible 384 games. He's coming off his best season to date in 2022.
Swanson hit .277/.329/.447 with a .776 OPS and 115 OPS+ with 25 home runs and a career-high 96 RBIs. He also set career highs with 177 hits, 99 runs, and 18 stolen bases.
Baseball-Reference graded Swanson a 5.7 WAR player in 2022, while FanGraphs calculated his WAR as 6.4.
What might set Swanson apart from his peers on the market is his glove.
Swanson won his first Gold Glove in 2022. His 21.4 Defensive Runs Above Above (Def) led all National League players, and his 21 outs above average were second in MLB, per FanGraphs.
FanGraphs values Swanson as a significantly better defender than a hitter over his career. His offensive value, according to FanGraphs, is minus-7.6, while his defensive value is 57.3.
The fit
Choosing Swanson over Bogaerts, Correa or Turner would be similar to what the Phillies did when they signed Wheeler to a $118 million contract in 2019: projection over production.
That is not to discount Swanson's production. Most free agent signings are based on what the player has done, not what the player will do. The Wheeler signing is an exception.
Swanson's career offensive value is weighted down by his first four seasons in the majors. Over the past three seasons, his offensive value is 27.2, according to FanGraphs.
Did he reach his peak offensively in his age-28 season? If so, he's still a pretty good hitter. But could there be another level he hasn't reached yet? Absolutely, and that's the projection.
The value defensively is clear. Swanson would solidify a premium defensive position the Phillies haven't figured out since the Jimmy Rollins days. Since 2015, shortstops have cost the Phillies 55 runs, according to FanGraphs. Last season, Phillies shortstops cost the team 12 runs.
Bryson Stott proved himself capable of being an everyday player in his rookie season, though he cost the Phillies four runs and was three outs below average at shortstop.
Stott, though, was a better player defensively at second base by the public metrics. He saved one run and was three outs above average in 372 innings playing second.
Signing any of the four shortstops would mean Stott would shift to second base.
Swanson is somehow underrated when talking free agent shortstops. Correa, Bogaerts and Turner have the name recognition, but Swanson may project the best of the four.
If the Phils believe Swanson still has room to grow offensively, he might be the best bet.
FanGraphs recently projected a Swanson contract will be in the range of six years, $139 million.