Beautiful fall weather in Philadelphia region this week; Hurricane Milton intensifies in the Tropics
A beautiful October stretch is in the forecast this week with seasonably cool temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a reinforcing shot of cool air Wednesday night.
Thursday and Friday likely stay in the 60s with morning lows in the 40s! As of now, Friday morning looks to be the chilliest of the week.
Speaking of 40s, the average first occurrence of lows in the 40s in Philly is Sept. 30. We are behind schedule but nowhere near the record latest first occurrence, which is Oct. 20.
In the tropics, we now have Hurricane Milton. Milton rapidly intensified Monday, exploding from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane by 10:55 a.m. Milton went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 in less than 24 hours. Unreal.
Looking at the records, the fastest intensification defined by wind speed appears to be with Patricia (Pacific, 2015) which went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 in 24 hours with wind speed intensification of 120 mph. The storm briefly fell back to a Category 4 overnight, but we expect it to strengthen more on Tuesday as it crosses very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico.
If the definition is based on millibars of pressure, Typhoon Forrest in 1983 seems to hold the record, as the storm dropped 100 mb (maybe more) of pressure in 24 hours. There isn't a globally consistent definition of "rapid intensification" but it's certainly clear that Milton is up there in the ranks. With the climate trend of warming oceans, this is becoming more the norm — we saw a rapid intensification just last year when Idalia increased 55 mph in wind speed over 24 hours.
With its northeast trajectory, the west coast of Florida needs to brace for another major hurricane, with winds that could likely gust over 140 mph, with widespread rainfall of 5 to 8 inches, in addition to storm surge flooding that is now expected to reach 10 to 15 feet in some areas, including the Tampa Bay region, meaning homes that have already been gutted from Helene's flooding will likely be inundated once again.
While the current cone has the Helene-devastated Tampa area in its crosshairs, areas from the panhandle to the Keys need to be on high alert as we monitor this serious threat. If there's one small bright spot in the forecast, it's that Milton looks to head out to sea after crossing Florida, so hardest-hit North Carolina will likely not suffer any impacts from the storm.
As always, the NEXT Weather Team will keep you and your family ahead of the storm and alert you to any potential impacts.
Here's your 7-day forecast:
Tuesday: Sunny, crisp. High 70, Low 50.
Wednesday: Beautiful fall day. High 70, Low 48.
Thursday: Cool! Some sun. High 64, Low 49.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 69, Low 44.
Saturday: Sunny, warmer. High 75, Low of 51.
Sunday: Gorgeous day! High 63, Low of 55.