Election Day 2024 weather in Philadelphia could be one of the warmest on record. A look at history.
A warm and sunny autumn day is certainly going to help drive more people outside and it might also help drive people to the polls in the Philadelphia area for the 2024 presidential election as well.
As the calendar turns to November, the fall season is already well underway, and typically, the cooler temperatures of the season have started to settle in as well. This year, however, has been quite the opposite. The average high temperature in Philadelphia since the first of September has been 75.1 degrees, about three degrees warmer than normal.
The trend for warmer-than-normal conditions has increased even more within the last two weeks (Oct. 21-Nov. 3), with high temperatures averaging about nine degrees warmer than normal (71.6 degrees), which is the second warmest for these days in recorded Philly history.
Temperature records in the Philadelphia area date back to 1874, and this trend of warmer temperatures, if not the warmest, will also play out on Election Day.
The CBS Philadelphia NEXT Weather Team is forecasting a high temperature of 76 degrees in Philadelphia on Tuesday.
The record high temperature in Philadelphia for Nov. 5 is 80 degrees, set in 1961. While the high temperature in Philadelphia on Nov. 5 this year will likely not reach the record, it would tie for the hottest temperature recorded for a presidential election.
Since Election Day is set to be the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, the actual date of Election Day varies from year to year. This means that Election Day can range from Nov. 2 to Nov. 8.
Back to history. The first presidential election in the United States since reliable temperature records were kept in Philadelphia was in 1876. The presidential election that year was between Samuel J. Tilden and Rutherford B. Hayes, who eventually went on to win the presidency.
The low temperature on the morning of Nov. 7, 1876, in Philadelphia was 46 degrees, with a high temperature that afternoon of 54 degrees. On that day, 1.21 inches of rain were recorded, which held the record for the most rain ever recorded on a presidential Election Day in Philadelphia.
Over the years, there were warmer Election Days and cooler Election Days. The coolest ever was Nov. 6, 2012, when the high temperature was 46 degrees. The coldest temperature recorded was 25 degrees for the 1960 presidential election between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon.
The warmest presidential election in Philadelphia history was Nov. 3, 1936, when the high temperature was 76 degrees. The election that year was between Franklin D. Roosevelt and Alf Landon.
Election Day 2024 in Philadelphia will rival 1936 as the warmest Election Day in Philadelphia history with the forecasted high temperature of 76 degrees, which is 16 degrees warmer than the normal high temperature for this time of year.
Will the warmth impact voter turnout? Possibly. A study in 2017 found that an increase in temperature on Election Day was significantly related to the rise in voter turnout. Specifically, the study found that for each increase of about 1.8 degrees, voter turnout increased by about 0.14%. At least at the time of writing this article, how that will play out is still yet to be determined.
At this point, while the result of the election of the 2024 presidential election is still unknown, one thing that is known is that it'll be an unseasonably warm Election Day that could very well go down in the history books weather-wise.