What early voting trends and predictions for midterm election in Texas show so far
As many as 10 million people in Texas may vote in this year's midterm election, according to the organization VoteHub, which works with CBS News' Data Desk.
That's close to 90% of the nearly 11.4 million people who cast their ballots during the 2024 presidential election. Zachary Donnini, Head of Data Science at VoteHub, told CBS News Texas that the Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton attracts a lot of attention not only in Texas.
He said it's "a race that's frankly gripping the nation. If we look nationally at what races have the most media interest, this idea that Democrats could win Texas is dominating coverage of the 2026 midterms."
As of Friday evening, Donnini said during the first four days of early voting, there were nearly 2.9 million ballots cast in the Lone Star State. He said he believes about 67% of Texas voters will cast a ballot during early voting this year. When asked about turnout in the big four counties in North Texas, Donnini said turnout during the first three days was high in Dallas County.
"Dallas, on the first day, I believe, had a bigger turnout than 2024," said Donnini. "One reason is because they added more centers, so it was easier to vote this year. There was more capacity to handle voters."
He said more Democrats than Republicans are casting their ballots in Dallas County. "What we're seeing is compared to 2024, turnout is just a little bit up in Democratic areas, and a little bit down in Republican areas. But I want to caveat that. So, there are two different things this could mean: One, in the end, Democratic turnout will just be better than Republican turnout compared to 2024. The second thing, though, is just that Republicans could be voting later."
Donnini said Tarrant County looks similar to Dallas County during the first three days of early voting.
"It's the same thing as Dallas in the sense it's looking just a bit more Democratic than in 2024," he said. "So, for example, Tarrant is often a battleground county. So far, the people who have voted are just a bit bluer than red compared to past primary history. But the thing about all this early voting stuff, and looking at who's voting, is it doesn't tell you who someone is voting for, and that's pivotal."
When asked what needs to happen in Tarrant County for Talarico to win statewide, Donnini said, "We think Talarico needs to win by probably six percentage points to win statewide. Again, we've talked a good bit about turnout. Just because the early voting period is happening, so we're getting information about turnout, but that's only half the battle, and some political scientists would say it's less than half the battle. The other part is persuasion. So, in Tarrant County, we have a couple of different areas. In the northeastern part of Tarrant County, we have towns like North Richland Hills that are historically Republican suburbs. Talarico, what he needs to do is trim Republican margins in those suburbs. Then in Fort Worth, for example, or South Arlington, these are more blue areas, but there's high populations of Asian and Hispanic voters that Donald Trump did well with in 2024. So, for Talarico, he needs to return to Hillary Clinton margins, or Joe Biden's margins in those places, while also making progress, cutting his deficits in the red suburbs. This is a state Donald Trump won by 14 points. If you're James Talarico or (Gina) Hinojosa, you need everything to go your way."
During the first three days of early voting in Collin and Denton Counties, Donnini said it's a different story.
"We have electorates so far that have more Republicans than Democrats, and we believe they may have voted for Donald Trump by high single digits or low double digits in 2024," said Donnini. "So, for Talarico, this means two things: One, you've got to flip people. To win a state like Texas, you need people coming out who voted for Donald Trump in 2024, who, for whatever reason, whether it has to do with Talarico, has to do with Ken Paxton, or just generally has to do with dissatisfaction about the Trump presidency, they need to change their vote for Texas to be purple or even light blue. Then the second thing is you need to get your people out over time. More Asian voters, younger voters, more Hispanic voters in Collin County. Talarico needs them to come out closer to Election Day."
Early voting continues through Friday, October 30, at 7 p.m. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
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