The Dallas Difference: Keuchel 2015 vs. Keuchel 2016
By: Jared Sandler
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ARLINGTON (105.3 The Fan)
|
2015
|
2016
|
|
|
2.48
|
ERA
|
5.50
|
|
0.217
|
Opp. BA
|
0.278
|
|
0.575
|
Opp. OPS
|
0.772
|
|
1.02
|
WHIP
|
1.45
|
|
7.18
|
H/9
|
9.8
|
|
0.66
|
HR/9
|
0.96
|
|
8.38
|
K/9
|
7.65
|
|
1.98
|
BB/9
|
3.23
|
|
4.24
|
K/BB
|
2.37
|
|
62.3%
|
GB%
|
58.3%
|
|
15.1
|
P/IP
|
16.6
|
Notice that not a single thing is better in 2016 than it was in 2015.
*But, so what? These are just numbers. They don't tell you why...but they kiiiinda do...
...The command/control is not in 2016 what it was in 2015. He's already had three games walking 4+ this year. He had just one such game all of last year.
But it isn't just reflected in walks.
Keuchel is not an overpowering pitcher. He's a soft-tosser who relies on impeccable command. Last year he got a lot of people to chase pitches just barely outside of the zone, thus producing weak contact, because of the respect they had for his strike-throwing ability and late movement.
|
2015
|
2016
|
|
|
33.3%
|
O-Swing%
|
28.5%
|
|
37.6%
|
Zone%
|
41.5%
|
In 2015, opposing batters swung at pitches thrown outside of the strike zone 5% more frequently this year than last year. It's a small number, but a significant one. And as opposing hitters haven't been chasing as much, Keuchel's been forced to throw strikes almost 4% more often which, again, is not a big number, but is also a significant one.
Dallas Keuchel didn't win the Cy Young because he blew people away in the strike zone. He won the Cy Young because of his unique ability to make a lot of pitches that ended up outside of the zone look like strikes to the hitter, getting them to swing and producer weaker contact.
For instance, the average exit velocity of a line drive hit against Dallas Keuchel last year was around 90 MPH, while this year it is around 93 MPH. In 2016, balls put in play with an exit velocity of 90 MPH become hits 24.6% of the time, while balls put in play with an exit velocity of 93 MPH become hits 28.4% of the time. That's a sizable difference in batting average.
I'm not suggesting Dallas Keuchel is doomed for 2016, but he's going to have to make adjustments to those the league have made against him.
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