Battle For Rangers' No. 5 Starting Spot

By Jared Sandler | @SandlerJ

I'LL HAVE A FIFTH OF…
Ok, so maybe the title doesn't make total sense when discussing the battle for the fifth spot in the rotation but, let's be real here, last season led to plenty of (responsible) sports drinking from Rangers fans, so I went with it...

Like the other job competitions, this one might remain fluid into the regular season, but it is the one you'd most like to get right the first time to prevent fluidity. Starting rotations are often carousels due to injury and performance, but the more stability you maintain in your rotation, the better.

A few teams are lucky enough to limit themselves to seven or eight starting pitchers in a season. The 2014 Rangers used 15 different starting pitchers. No team in baseball used only five and only one team used just six starters to start at least three games. With that said, it is unlikely that only one of these guys will be counted on as a starting pitcher this season.

This job competition is the most intriguing to me because of those fighting for the fifth spot. The candidates include a potential hidden gem who was, at one point, the off-season's crown jewel. There's the guy who is still relatively new to pitching, and another who's relatively new to starting pitching.

Another guy quietly did good work last year, hidden among the shadows. One former first-rounder getting a change of scenery, and then there's the highly touted prospect, who, though a longshot, adds some sizzle. Let's take a look...

NAMES TO KNOW
Nick Martinez: Primarily a second baseman at Fordham University, Martinez is still pretty new to pitching, relatively speaking. He played both ways in college, but he didn't top 30 career IP, so it wasn't an even distribution by any means. Martinez gained valuable experience at the Major League level well ahead of schedule, but he'll probably spend most of the year back in the minors. I was most impressed by his poise and his mental toughness. He got beat up at times but always faced the media with a confident look, said the right things, and backed it up by continuing to work hard and make adjustments.

Nick Tepesch: After allowing more than three runs five times through his first 11 starts, there were only three occasions he did so over his final 12 starts. What does that tell me? More frequently over that second batch, he gave his team a chance to win. That's all you ask out of your fifth starter, typically. Where red flags are raised about Tepesch is that he averaged just 4K/9IP, a total that is remarkably low. Among qualifying starting pitchers, no one had fewer than 5K/IP. While strikeouts aren't everything, the ability to get outs without the ball getting in play is a valuable tool.

Ross Detwiler: The sixth overall pick in the 2007 draft, Detwiler enters his age-29 season in his first campaign with the Rangers. He's spent his entire career in the Nationals organization prior to getting traded to Texas. He's a lefty who lives and dies by his sinker. Last year was his first at the big league level where he did not start a single game, instead working exclusively out of the bullpen. This came after a 2013 season marred by a pinched nerve in his back and an oblique injury, but before that, he compiled a 3.28 ERA over 37 starts in 2011 and 2012. A track record of success isn't lengthy, but it exists.

Lisalverto Bonilla: Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce to you the first pitcher EVER in Rangers history to win his first three career starts. This is the same guy who started just three of his 170 minor league appearances prior. You're excused for not realizing this or for not remembering any of his starts because they all came in September. Bonilla took down the Braves, the Angels, and the Astros in impressive fashion (17 IP, 4R, 10H, 14K:10BB). Take his September efforts with a grain of salt, but certainly don't ignore them.

Anthony Ranaudo: One of the Rangers off-season acquisitions, Ranaudo was once a coveted prospect out of LSU in the Red Sox system. He never quite developed into the player they had hoped with injuries partially responsible. The Red Sox sent him to the Rangers for Robbie Ross Jr., who had a disappointing 2014 campaign as both a starter and reliever for Texas. Ranaudo is a right-handed pitcher who has an outside shot at the rotation to begin the year, but what's most likely is that he begins the year in AAA.

Alex "Chi Chi" Gonzalez: The expression, "We didn't lose, we just ran out of time" might fit Gonzalez perfectly. One of the Rangers' prized prospects, Gonzalez might not make the rotation out of camp, but he could certainly join that rotation early on in the year. He gets a lot of groundballs with his sinker (nearly 2:1 ratio in the minors) and has shown a strong ability to keep his slider low in the zone, though it isn't a great swing-and-miss pitch.

NUMBERS GAME
During the 2014 season, the average MLB team used EIGHT different pitchers to start at least three games. The Rangers led all of baseball, using 13 pitchers to start at least three game. Only one team used just six pitchers to do so and no team used only five. Even in the healthiest of conditions, the Rangers will likely use at least eight pitchers to start a game this year. Why does this matter? Having six legitimate options for the final spot in the rotation is a valuable resource that will likely dig into beyond the lone wolf who wins the gig. They are way more prepared to weather the injury storm this year than they were last year.

ON THE JOB
This job competition is most compelling to me because it is about whether or not the Rangers can maximize what they have on their roster. To me, there is a clear-cut answer to who should be the fifth starter -- and that is Ross Detwiler.

He was a victim of injuries and a uniquely tough-to-crack starting rotation in Washington, but his talent level is top of the class and, except for Gonzalez, his upside is too. The Rangers value having another lefty in the starting rotation and Detwiler gives them that, plus the sinker-led arsenal which has played so well in Arlington, first really emphasized when Orel Hershiser was this team's pitching coach.

Nick Tepesch can be solid and if he is your fifth starter, you aren't in terrible shape, but, forget potential and upside. I still don't think he is better than Detwiler right now. Ranaudo is still a work-in-progress, and Bonilla has only started six games in his entire professional career. As impressed as I was with Nick Martinez's intangibles last year, he still needs some work on the mound, though he does fit the role of "long reliever" really well, not to say the others couldn't adapt, though.

Alex "Chi Chi" Gonzalez will be exciting to track throughout Spring and early into the season. I don't think there is any real incentive to have him on the big league roster over some of the more experienced options to begin the season, but you better believe he'll be gunning for that spot once it all gets going.

HOW IT WORKS
Ross Detwiler gets the job out of camp and runs with it. My guess is an ERA just south of 4.00 with 13 wins and 20+ starts. I think he is about as solid of a fifth starter as can be, BUT, as the numbers showed above, the Rangers won't have just five guys throughout the year, whether it is because of injury or performance. Other than Gallardo, the other three members of the Rangers' top 4 experienced injuries as an obstacle at some point last season, so to assume across-the-board health for that group seems unfair.

My guess is that Martinez, Ranaudo, and Bonilla spend almost all of the year in Triple-A, save for some spot duty. It is too tough for me forecast who would be the first in line to get the call up if one of those did -- my guess is it will be based on their performance at the time. However, I think Tepesch and Gonzalez get their crack in Arlington. Don't be alarmed if Gonzalez doesn't set the world on fire. He doesn't blow hitters away and no matter what type of pitcher you are, most experience some early growing pains.

Overall, the Rangers are in much better shape with more experienced depth than last season. Even if they have to dig deep beyond their Opening Day rotation, they'll be drawing from a mixture of guys with experience and upside who are ready for Major League Baseball.

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