Sandler's Thoughts On The Rangers Needs At The Trade Deadline
By: Jared Sandler
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July is always an incredibly fun month to break up the monotony of a baseball season with the rumors and execution of trades. If your team is contending, their buying. If they're not contending, their selling. Everyone is involved. The Rangers are buyers this year, looking for rotation and bullpen help as well as, perhaps, an upgrade behind the plate. Before the buying truly begins, here are some thoughts, including my assessment of the state of the team's pitching situation.
Despite the team's recent rotation struggles, if you told me the Rangers could only upgrade their rotation or bullpen, and not both, I'd elect to upgrade the bullpen. Trust me, I get it. Nine straight games without a starter pitching into the sixth? That's brutal. Unacceptable. But this rotation isn't as bad as recency bias might suggest.
Now, they aren't faced with that decision and, like many, I'd like them to upgrade both pitching departments. But, teams have made it to and won the World Series without star-studded rotations (see: 2011 Texas Rangers)--by the way, a rotation that very well might begin with Hamels and Darvish is absolutely star-studded--and last year's Royals squad had a starting rotation ERA near 5.00 in the post-season.
It is so rare, however, that a team does so with a shaky bullpen. Recent injuries have thrust pitchers who won't sniff the playoff roster into action, so I don't think the 2016 need for a starter is as grave as everyone has suggested.
The return of Keone Kela plus another impact bullpen arm can turn this bullpen from one of the league's worst into one of the league's best, much like how the addition of two pitchers last year--Diekman and Dyson--did the same.
Now, I'm not saying the Rangers don't need starting pitching. No, no. Not at all. However, I don't think if the Rangers miss out on a young and controllable starting pitcher, they've failed. They can get by with more of a depth addition for 2016. But it isn't just about 2016.
The upcoming free agent class, in general, is very weak, with starting pitching, specifically, as bare as in recent memory. Thus, the best opportunity to add to your rotation is likely through trading and might be over the next few weeks. With Yu Darvish entering a contract year in 2017, the Rangers certainly want to put themselves in a position to replenish. I don't think it is likely that Darvish re-signs with the Rangers and I very much advocate the pursuit of a young and controllable starting pitcher. It'd be great to get that guy now so, like Cole Hamels last year, he can not only help for the future, but for the present as well. However, there's a good chance that a move for that type of pitcher waits until the off-season with how crazy and competitive the market appears to be.
With both contending and non-contending teams pursuing controllable starting pitching this month in response to the weak set of upcoming free agents, the price appears to be very steep. The Rangers are absolutely at the forefront of the conversations, but it is unclear whether or not they'll pull the trigger. After all, I think a controllable, top-half of the rotation starting pitcher is more of a luxury for 2016 than a need. Starting pitching, in general, is something I think that will be addressed, but it might be more for depth than sizzle. If no move is made before the deadline, it is likely the Rangers will upgrade their starting pitching through the trade market in the off-season.
Ideally, the Rangers add to their playoff rotation (meaning, a top-half of the rotation pitcher) and their bullpen's core, but I think solidifying the bullpen and, at a minimum, adding starting depth puts them in a good spot for this season.
Here are some other thoughts about the trade deadline and more...
*One reason the Rangers haven't traded for a SP yet is not because of their lack of urgency, but because of the sellers' lack of urgency. There are so many teams in play for a top of the rotation starter that, like an auction, those teams are sitting back watching teams outbid one another. As mentioned above, contenders and non-contenders are in the market for controllable starters. Sellers are waiting for the one-upping to stall and then they'll settle on the deal that best suits them, but they're in no rush to do anything now.
*Earlier this season, I really rode the "Bring Jonathan Lucroy to Texas" train hard. While I never quite left it, I went into stealth mode. Now, I'm honking the horn loud and clear. Rangers catchers, while ranking 10th in slugging, now rank in the bottom half of the league in batting average and on-base percentage with those numbers dropping of late to, what some might suggest, the mean expectation for their trio behind the dish. Jonathan Lucroy, however, is slashing .304/.361/.491/.853. His batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS would rank 2nd on the Rangers. His slugging percentage would rank tied for second. He'd be a huge offensive upgrade. But it isn't just about the offense. Lucroy has the reputation of being a very strong defensive catcher with whom pitchers love working. He also comes with the reputation of being a great leader and clubhouse guy and would undoubtedly fit in well with the Rangers for the remainder of his contract, which expires after the 2017 season. For me, the perfect trade have the Rangers getting Lucroy and Will Smith, a very good left-handed reliever, addressing not one, but two needs.
*And, yes, by the way, give me Smith over Jeremy Jeffress, a righty who doesn't strike guys out.
*Sonny Gray's numbers don't scare me. He is a ground ball pitcher he pitches in front of one of baseball's worst defenses imaginable.
*I'm not sure what to make of Drew Pomeranz. His numbers are super sexy, but there's that whole pitching in the NL thing, not to mention pitching in a very pitcher-friendly park. Plus, whereas Gray has bad numbers with a great track record, Pomeranz has great numbers without nearly the track record of success as a starting pitcher.
AL Cy Young: Danny Salazar
AL MVP: Jose Altuve (Ian Desmond ranks 3rd for me)
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
NL MVP: Kris Bryant (with Clayton Kershaw a cloooooose second)
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