Power supply could be tight this summer, ERCOT says
TEXAS (CBSNewsTexas.com) – Tight power supplies are possible during late evenings in Texas this summer, as grid operators cautioned Wednesday the state won't have enough on-demand power generation to meet the need during peak hours.
The new record peak forecast of 82,739 MW surpasses what thermal generators can produce for the first time, leaving homes and businesses reliant on energy from solar and wind generation.
The seasonal assessment from ERCOT anticipates under normal summer conditions there should be enough electricity to meet demand, however after sunset, and before winds pick up in the western parts of the state, supply could be tight.
"In this new reality, our risk goes up as the sun goes down, because it's still hot at 9 p.m.," said Public Utility Commission Chair Peter Lake.
While the highest periods of demand are traditionally between 4 and 5 p.m. in the afternoon, that could shift this year to the evening hours after people get home.
There were a dozen times last summer between 8 and 10 p.m. Lake said, when just 20% of wind turbines were generating power. He said data shows on average the state needs about half of the units generating power at 9 p.m. to keep up with demand.
There will be more than 3,500 MW of battery power this season to help, but it can run out in one to two hours.
The tight supply scenario is not guaranteed to happen, but only a possibility due to supply and demand, explained ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas. He pointed out tight conditions in July of 2022 happened when there was a decrease in available wind and solar power. Temperatures and demand were actually higher a week later, but supply was ample because the wind was blowing.
"We do expect the grid to be reliable, but we want to be upfront and communicate openly and transparently to all consumers to the kinds of risks we do see, and so that's the purpose of sharing all of these different scenarios," said Vegas.
