Ohio, Super Tuesday & The GOP Presidential Primary
The following is commentary from CBS 11's political reporter Jack Fink:
DALLAS (CBSDFW.COM) - Ohio-Ohio-Ohio?
Could the battleground state of Ohio really change the state of the Republican Presidential Primary?
It's very possible.
While Republicans will be going to the polls in Maine, Arizona, and Michigan before month's end, Super Tuesday is quickly approaching on March 6th.
One of the biggest prizes is Ohio. It's a big, diverse state, and none of the candidates has a home field advantage.
66 delegates are at stake in Ohio. While Newt Gingrich is the favorite in Georgia, where 76 delegates are at stake, and Mitt Romney is the favorite in Massachusetts, where he served as Governor, the Buckeye state is up for grabs.
The most recent polls show a tight race. The Public Policy Polling survey from the end of January showed Gingrich with 26, Romney with 25, Rick Santorum at 22, and Ron Paul with 11 percent support.
After big victories in Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado, Santorum is seeking to capitalize on his momentum.
If he can win Ohio, CBS 11 Political Analyst John Weekley says we could be headed to a brokered convention in Tampa this August.
At the very least, it could reset the race. Just yesterday, during a one-on-one interview with Santorum, the former Pennsylvania Senator told me this primary season could be described like the weather. He said, "If you don't like the way the race is going right now, just wait a week or two - it's going to change."
CBS News Chief Washington Correspondent Bob Schieffer told CBS 11 News anchor Tracy Kornet that this was the nuttiest campaign year he ever remembers covering.
While most analysts still believe Romney will win the nomination because he has raised more money and built a solid organization, there could be problems in the Romney camp.
Despite big Romney wins in Florida and Nevada, fewer Republicans turned out there than in 2008. Does that mean conservatives are still unhappy with Romney? Many analysts say yes.
Some voters I spoke with at the Republican Women of North Collin County event in Allen Wednesday night told me they've been turned off by the negative campaigning and debates, and are only now starting to look at the process.
One couple said they prefer Gingrich, but are open to Santorum, but not Romney. Another woman said she liked Santorum after hearing him speak. But not Romney.
While Texas' primary remains up in the air, and will likely be delayed for a second time from April 3, analyst John Weekley says the Lone Star State could actually play a key role.
But he says that could largely depend on the outcome of the Ohio primary on Super Tuesday.
