Larry Mowry's Snowfall Predictions For Wednesday

UPDATE at 10:25pm Monday:
That newest model run of the GFS (get a new update 4 times a day) that I mentioned below in my previous update, has come in with very little precip for DFW and if anything maybe light rain. Just talked about it on CBS 11 News at 10pm. These are the frustrating moments of weather forecasting. Not entirely unusual though for big discrepancies in models when looking at winter storms. So we continue to wait and see what new model runs show overnight and tomorrow. Thanks for reading!

UPDATE at 8:55pm Monday:

You may have heard me talking about it on social media last night or today on CBS 11 News, but we have the potential for another round of winter weather Tomorrow Night into Wednesday morning.

TIMEFRAME:
A 12-hour window starting Wednesday at Midnight thru Wednesday at Noon looks to be the time frame where snow would be possible in North Texas. WINTER STORM WATCH in effect for this time including DFW.

SPECIFICS:
A strong upper level storm system that has a lot of cold air with it will pass over North Texas Wednesday morning. This will create the precipitation that will fall from the sky.

TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL STORM:
Who gets snow or who gets just a cold rain will depend on the track of the upper level low. I've been pouring over the latest information this evening and the track is still uncertain. More below.

HOW MUCH SNOW:
It is too early to give specifics for any one location. But early estimates are some parts of North Texas (could be DFW, could not) might receive 1" to 3" of heavy wet snow. The look of this disturbance and its strength gives me a little pause in giving snow estimates this early. Why? If the set up is just right (and it's possible), more than 3" of snow could fall for some areas.

TEMPERATURES:
Temperatures during this time frame Wednesday morning will likely be in the 30 to 34 degree range. This would be a heavy, wet snow and possibly mixed with rain at times. That may limit accumulation as heavier snow weighs down snow that has already fallen. But intensity of snow could be quite heavy leading to near white out conditions. Seriously.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:
Temperatures do look to warm above freezing Wednesday afternoon, so if we don't have a whole lot of snow, most of it will melt. But if we happen to get a big dumping of snow, it may not all melt in the afternoon.

IMPORTANT NOTES:
The track of the upper level storm system will be key as to whether we get snow or not.

I want to show you a few maps below showing some differences in the system.

First, the very latest NAM model which came in a few moments ago. It is labeled NAM. It shows a pretty good bulls-eye of snow (shaded blue) right over North Texas and DFW. This would be more of direct hit with snowfall.

The next map with a closer view of North Texas with DFW labeled on the map is a snowfall forecast from that NAM model. (Take it for a grain of salt). But it reflects the potential of 1"-3" snowfall and some spots maybe more.

The last map is the GFS Model that came in a few hours ago. Expecting a new model run after 9pm. BIG DIFFERENCE: This model doesn't shade snow in blue, but the take away is the green that shows up on the map. (The green can represent snow on this map, it's just not colored that way.) The green is primarily south of DFW. That would put the heaviest precip south of the DFW metroplex and lead to not as much snow for the Metroplex.

FINAL NOTE:
There are a lot of nuances in the track of the storm that will have a huge impact on who gets snow and who doesn't. I'll continue to update thru the day on Tuesday and be sure to watch tonight on CBS 11 News at 10pm.

And oh yeah, lots of icy spots tonight and tomorrow morning as we stay in 20s thru early Tuesday morning.

But who wished for winter?

~Larry Mowry