Eye on Politics: A look at the key 2024 races we'll be watching
NORTH TEXAS — In a special episode of Eye on Politics, we preview the key 2024 races to watch (original air date: Jan. 4).
Jack is joined by UT Arlington political science professor Rebecca Deen and SMU political science professor Matthew Wilson to discuss the Republican presidential primaries, the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas, whether Texas' abortion ban will impact this year's elections and how Attorney General Ken Paxton's impeachment trial is impacting Texas House races.
Jack also examines the legacy of former longtime Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson who died on Dec. 31 at the age of 88.
Every week, CBS News Texas political reporter Jack Fink breaks down some of the biggest political stories grabbing headlines in North Texas and beyond. Watch the latest episode of Eye on Politics in the video player above and stream new episodes live every Thursday at 6 p.m. on CBS News Texas.
Republican presidential primary
One of the topics Jack discussed with Deen and Wilson: Will the Republican presidential primary race be over if Donald Trump wins in Iowa on Jan. 15?
Trump has led the Republican primary polls nationally, in Iowa and New Hampshire.
In their conversation, Deen said she doesn't think it will be over after the contests in Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina, but she does think it will be telling.
"I think the early states are going to inform a lot, but I don't think it's necessarily going to be a shut case," she said.
Wilson says he thinks Trump will be at a great advantage in these early contests.
"No one else has really caught fire to a level that comes anywhere close to challenging where he is," Wilson said. "There's some interesting jockeying for second."
U.S. Senate race
In the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas, nine candidates are running to unseat incumbent Ted Cruz.
The top two in terms of fundraising and in the polls are Congressman Colin Allred from Dallas and State Sen. Roland Gutierrez from the San Antonio area.
Deen and Wilson both said Allred is the favorite in this race. She also noted how different the two candidates are in terms of political style and policy.
"Allred is very bipartisan. He ran on that initially. He has tried to be that type of person in Congress, and he talks about the importance of being able to forge alliances, that legislation is made through coalition building. And then you have Gutierrez, who says, 'No, when you're in the minority, the way that you get your stuff is to be as hard-nosed as possible."
Wilson said this encapsulates a debate that's been ongoing in the Texas Democratic Party about how to approach politics: by being moderate or getting behind ideological firebrands.
"Those are two very different philosophies about what is a path to winning elections in Texas for Democrats," he said.
North Texas Congressional races
The races for the three open North Texas Congressional seats are getting crowded.
In District 32, Congressman Allred's seat, 10 Democrats are running in the primary.
In the 26th Congressional District, Republican Michael Burgess is retiring. Eleven Republicans are vying to replace him.
And in Fort Worth, Republican Congresswoman Kay Granger is leaving her seat in the 12th District. Five Republicans are running to replace her.
Wilson and Deen said the number of candidates these open races have attracted illustrates the power of incumbency.
"There's just such a void," Deen said. "When you have an open seat, everyone comes out of the woodwork."
All three of these districts are either solidly Republican or Democrat, so the real contest is in the primaries.
Abortion's impact on the races
When it comes to the issue of abortion, both Deen and Wilson said it's a mobilizing issue for some members of the Democratic Party.
"We've seen a real mixed bag with regard to how much abortion has figured into elections," Wilson said. "In certain elections, it seems to have really helped Democrats; they were able to make the election a referendum on abortion ... but on the other hand, we have seen cases, like in 2022, where in Texas and Florida, governors who signed very strict abortion laws cruised to reelection victories."
Paxton's involvement in primary races
The impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton and the trial in which he was cleared of wrongdoing proved to be the biggest political story in Texas last year.
Now, Paxton is backing the challengers to five Republican lawmakers from Collin County who voted to impeach him.
Jack asked Deen and Wilson about the potential impact Paxton could have and what these races could come down to.
"I think it's going to be about money," said Deen.
Wilson said it's important to remember that unseating incumbents is difficult.
"Throwing out, within a partisan primary, a current officeholder who has won that office under that party's banner, it is a heavy lift," he said. "Whoever is launching these, whether it's a PAC, whether it's Ken Paxton or Greg Abbott, it's an uphill battle."
Wilson and Deen both said that even if the challengers don't beat the incumbents, it doesn't mean that they were entirely unsuccessful.
"In the grassroots, there was a lot of anger over the Paxton impeachment—I mean, just visceral anger," Deen said. "What the challengers are doing, even if they're not successful electorally, is they keep that juice."
To hear more analysis, watch the full episode at the top of this page.
Remembering a political icon
Former longtime Dallas Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson, a political icon in North Texas who represented the 30th Congressional District for 30 years, has died at the age of 88.
Johnson, who was known as EBJ, was a trailblazer.
Before retiring late last year, she was honored with an official portrait on Capitol Hill after becoming the first African American and woman to serve as Chair of the House Science, Safety, and Technology Committee.
In an interview before last year's ceremony, she looked back on her career:
"I want to tell you something: I am proud of my record. I am proud of the things I've been able to help our entire area and our entire state achieve."
