Sea level rise forecasts threaten the future of Stinson Beach

STINSON BEACH -- It takes Tauni Meade and her dog about 60 seconds to walk from their home, to their happy place: Stinson Beach.

She's lived in the beach community for the majority of her life.

"There's a strong sense of closeness in our community where we care for each other," she said.

Meade would like to, as she says, "age in place" here. But in order for that to happen, Meade says the community must start figuring out how to adapt to an inevitable future.

"I mean, I've seen this land and water interact in one way my entire life," she said. "But it's interesting to see how it can be stretched to adapt to sea level rise." 

Future sea level rise is expected to shift the water's edge further inland, which poses threats to coastal communities around the world, such as Stinson.

"Some of the concerns are, how long our community can be here? How long my home can be here?" she said.

A new report published by the Marin County Community Development Agency (CDA) and Environmental Science Associates, reveals details about how sea level rise over the next several decades could affect natural resources, homes and infrastructure in Stinson Beach area.

The report states, "If no action is taken, higher water levels would increase erosion of the beach and upland migration of marsh habitats. Additionally, the combination of higher ocean water levels and squeeze of beaches and marshes around Stinson Beach would result in greater flooding and damage during coastal storms."

Sarah Jones, the CDA Director, says its important to start planning now for the future.

"Stinson Beach is tucked into a little nook," she said. "It's particularly and uniquely vulnerable because you have the ocean on one side, the lagoon on the other side, and then beyond that you also have the creek."

The report details several scenarios, as early as 2040, of how sea level rise could impact the community and surrounding natural habitats if no action is taken.

"What we're planning for is several decades from now -- 2040, 2050 -- but we're going to continue seeing the effects creeping up, literally and figuratively, over time," Jones said.

The CDA is working with the community to develop a roadmap for how it can plan for sea level rise. They held a meeting on April 29th with property owners and residents, held focus groups and will have another meeting on May 18th.

"This is not a hypothetical," Jones said. "This is something that is really before us, and collectively, we have some choices to make about how we want to address it."

The CDA launched the Stinson Beach Adaptation and Resilience Collaboration (ARC) project back in 2022, which is a grant-funded effort to help develop the roadmap. They plan to identify and analyze feasible strategies and funding sources for adaptation over the next year.

"We're really thinking about the solutions that are going to be the ones that we need for several decades into the future," Jones said.

Jones says there isn't a one size fits all strategy, and the solutions will evolve over the years.

"Rather than putting up walls and trying to do what's called armoring, we want to look at ways to evolve and adapt the natural environment to better deal with sea level rise," she said.

Meade is buckled in for the long haul.

"We'll adapt and then we'll have to re-adapt," she said.

She's ready to live with the reality of sea level rise, so long as it doesn't go neglected.

"What seems appropriate today might not be appropriate in 20 years," Meade said. "We might need new techniques and engineering. I leave that to the experts."