Do El Niño Predictions Mean We'll Have A Wet Summer And Fall?
KPIX 5 Morning Weather Anchor Roberta Gonzales answers the questions you never get to ask on-air.
Q: Hi Roberta, If we have a strong El Niño this year and a wet winter does that mean this summer and fall will also be super rainy? - Suzy Clifton
A: That is the magic 8 ball question!
It is very important to understand, just because the weather computer models are pointing in the direction of a powerful El Niño later this year does NOT mean it will happen! Last year, these same computer models indicated THIS past winter (2014-2015) would be wet, and we know how all that turned out!
To answer your question, as of right now, none of our long-term computer models lean towards a rainy summer or autumn.
It is still too early to address potential implications of a strong El Niño event for California. Strong El Niño events do tend to increase the potential for very wet winters through most of California (especially in Southern California), but do not eliminate the possibility of dry winters as we experienced this past winter. No rain and a huge lack of snow!
I personally find it hard to believe Northern California will experience a 5th year with below average rainfall. I guess I am siding with the optimistic Monthly El Nino Reports, not just for scientific reasoning, but personally, I do not wish to see the Bay Area thirst for water. One thing is certain, Cal Fire is prepared a long, dry summer with high fire danger to come.
I would love to hear from you! Please send weather questions, observations and photos to me, Gonzales@kpix.cbs.com and I look forward to hearing from you!
