The majority of Americans support climate reforms. Why won't Congress deliver?

Officials "dramatically underestimate" support from constituents

Marc Arnauch, a third-generation farmer from Colorado, once didn't believe humans could change the climate.

"Earlier in my farming career, I was a naysayer that man couldn't possibly change the climate," he said.

But after years of watching nighttime temperatures rise and rainfall patterns shift, Arnauch couldn't deny the impact climate change was having on his crops.

In Arnauch's congressional district, two-thirds are worried about climate change, 79% support funding research into renewable energy and 73% support regulating carbon emissions.

Still, when election season comes around, climate isn't his top concern. He plans to vote for Rep. Lauren Boebert, even though she's been an outspoken opponent of climate policies, famously dismissing the issue by claiming, "climate change occurs four times a year," referring to the seasons.

For Arnauch, other issues -- like his farm, family and the local economy, which relies heavily on farming and fracking -- take priority.

Arnauch story isn't unique. Lifelong Republican Larry Howe from Texas also finds himself at odds with his party on climate change, even as he agrees on many other issues.

Yale's polling data shows about 64% are worried about climate change in Texas, but Howe doesn't feel like his opinions on climate change align with his party.

At a recent town hall, Howe confronted his congressman, Rep. Pat Fallon, asking whether he would support climate education. Fallon instead urged caution, warning against "climate alarmism."

Texas party leaders, like Dallas GOP Chairman Allen West, have echoed these sentiments, pushing back against "extreme solutions" they believe could limit personal freedoms.

But Howe said he will be taking climate into account on election day.

"If you want my vote, you got to step up on climate and prioritize the issue," Howe said. "If you're not willing to act on something with so much evidence behind it, how can I trust you on other issues?"

Tony Leiserowitz, the director of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, this disconnect between climate change and politics is widespread.

"We see pretty much across the board, at all levels of government, that government officials dramatically underestimate the level of support from their own constituents," Leiserowitz said.

"Voter preferences and voter priorities"

More Yale polling data found global warming ranked 19th among 28 issues listed in deciding a presidential candidate. It was ranked higher among Democratic voters and lower among Republican voters.

Republican voters ranked the economy and inflation as the top two issues.

"There's a huge difference between voter preferences and voter priorities. And, you know, politicians have limited time and limited money and a limited ability to communicate with voters," said Nathaniel Stinnett, the founder and director of the Environmental Voter Project.

In California, a state that typically leads the way in environmental laws and regulations, some local officials are cautious about changing too much too fast.

Surprisingly some Democratic lawmakers are voting against environmental legislation, despite widespread public support for climate action.

California Assemblymember Blanca Rubio said her votes reflect the financial realities her constituents face, not climate denial.

"Not every community can afford whatever policy we pass," Rubio said, pointing to the state's clean car regulations, which bans the sale of new gas-powered vehicles by 2035. Experts warn that the state may not have the infrastructure to support the shift.

"A lot of times, we vote on bills based on hopes and dreams," Rubio said.

Jobs are also a key issue. While clean energy jobs now make up more than half of California's energy workforce, fossil fuel jobs pay, on average, 50% more due to stronger unions.

State Sen. Melissa Hurtado, who represents the state's largest oil-producing region, supports reducing emissions but stresses the need to protect local jobs.

"We have to think about what's going to keep our economy going and keep people employed," Hurtado said.

New environmental laws have been pumping money and jobs into the economy

While California Democrats may feel some climate policies are hurting their constituents, across the country many districts are seeing millions of dollars in investment and new jobs because of climate policy.

This is especially true in conservative congressional districts where all representatives voted against the Inflation Reduction Act.

Nearly two-thirds of the projects, more than two-thirds of the jobs and more than 80% of the money invested in projects taking advantage of the legislation's tax credits have been in Republican-represented congressional districts, according to data collected by E2, which has tracked project announcements since the bill's passing.

Additionally, almost 3.5 million Americans worked in clean energy by the end of 2023 according to an analysis of federal data by E2. Clean energy jobs represented more than half of all new energy jobs in 2023.

Georgia Rep. Buddy Carter, a Republican who represents a coastal district particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise and extreme storms like Hurricane Debby, voted against the act.

His district, however, is gaining 4,500 new green jobs and $3.5 billion in investments from the legislation. Carter said that his opposition stemmed from a provision in the IRA that lowers the cost of prescription drugs.

Still, Carter insists he aligns with his constituents' views.

"I represent the entire coast of Georgia, and we love our environment," he said.

Yet, he has voted against environmental measures 96% of the time, according to the League of Conservation Voters, even as 53% of his district's residents express concern about climate change.

Carter, the vice-chair of the Conservative Climate Caucus, which includes more than 80 Republicans who acknowledge climate change but all voted against the IRA, expressed uncertainty about its causes.

"I'm not a scientist in that realm, so I don't know what it could be, but I suspect it could be just natural phenomena," he said, adding, "I'm not one of those who subscribes to the theory that if we don't fix it by the day after tomorrow, we're all going to fry. But I do believe we should address it."

The oil industry is "fighting tooth and nail"

Another reason for the disconnect between voters and elected officials when it comes to climate change is the oil and gas industry. It spent $72 million on federal lobbying in the first half of 2024 alone, as the EPA introduced some of its toughest regulations to reduce fossil fuel emissions. This spending is on track to surpass the $133 million spent in 2023.

"There's the existence of a very powerful lobby, mostly the fossil fuel industry, that is absolutely fighting tooth and nail to try to maintain their hold over our energy system," said Yale's Tony Leiserowitz.

Research from Harvard University revealed that ExxonMobil accurately predicted climate change in the 1970s but never shared its findings. Today, Exxon leads the oil and gas lobbying efforts, ranking among the top 20 lobbyists across all industries, having spent $300 million since 1998.

The industry has also donated more than $400 million to congressional campaigns since 1998, with about 80% of that going to Republican members.

"These older companies are holding onto the past because it benefits their profits. They've had massive influence on politics, from the local to national level," Leiserowitz explained.

Climate voters can swing elections

Nathaniel Stinnett, from the Environmental Voter Project, said his organization focuses on "finding people who care deeply about climate in the environment, who don't vote, and then turning them into better voters," Stinnett said.

This strategy has the potential to influence election outcomes. The Environmental Voter Project identified significant numbers of climate voters in key battleground states: 250,000 in Pennsylvania, 230,000 in Arizona and 490,000 in Georgia. Given the narrow margins in these states during the 2020 election, these voters could be decisive.

Researchers at the University of Colorado studied the 2016 and 2020 elections and found that 77% of voters - including moderates - consider climate change "somewhat" or "very" important supported Democrats. In 2020, these voters overwhelmingly backed Biden.

The researchers also found that climate change opinions boosted Biden's popular vote by 3%, enough to give him the edge over Trump in the 2020 election.

"We know the policies needed to tackle the climate crisis. We know the technologies that should be adopted more quickly. We understand how utilities and energy consumption must change. The answers are there, but what often stands in the way is a lack of political will for politicians to enact these solutions," Stinnett said.