Previewing The Top 5 Games This Weekend
Line: Steelers (-1)
The Skinny: Pittsburgh holds a slight lead in the all-time series (12-8) and has won four of five; but this one could easily be considered a toss-up due to the unusual circumstances surrounding it.
The Steelers are holding opponents to 11 points per game early in the season, and the few points that have been scored came mostly in garbage time. Add in the fact that Baltimore QB Joe Flacco holds a 59.2 passer rating at Heinz Field, as well as the detail that RB Ray Rice comes into the game banged up, and things look decidedly in Pittsburgh's favor.
But before we plan our postgame celebration party, there are a few concerns we have to acknowledge. First and foremost is the question of how QB Charlie Batch will fare in his first set of consecutive starts since 2005. Baltimore is allowing just 116 yards passing per game so far in 2010, absolutely neutralizing higher-profile QBs such as Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer. Can Batch outdo those former Trojans? I'm skeptical. He'll have to lean heavily on his running game, but Rashard Mendenhall has been less than stellar in three career contests against the Ravens, averaging 3.2 yards per carry (or two full yards less than his average in 2010).
In the end, I think adrenaline and emotion win out as the Steelers' defense once again reigns supreme in a low-scoring battle. I'm counting on something special out of Troy Polamalu and one of the Steelers' playmaking linebackers in making a game-changing play. Why? Because I don't know how many we can count on from the offense outside of the random bomb to Mike Wallace.
The Steelers' plus-six turnover margin is tied for the league's best, while Baltimore's minus-six is tied for the NFL's worst. And that, my friends, will ultimately prove to be the difference in this ballgame.
My Pick: Steelers 16, Ravens 13
Your Pick:
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-1) at Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1), Saturday, 8:05 PM
Line: Iowa (-7)
The Skinny: Let's be frank: Iowa has owned Penn State in this decade. The Hawkeyes have taken seven of eight, handing absolutely devastating losses to the Nittany Lions in both 2008 (24-23, ranked 3rd at the time) and 2009 (21-10, ranked 5th at the time). So I'm sure that Joe Paterno's team has revenge on their minds.
The Hawkeyes bring a formidable offense to the table in this one, led by QB Ricky Stanzi (9 TD/1 INT) and RB Adam Robinson, who's topped 100 yards in three of four games this season. But Arizona gave teams the blueprint to beating Iowa two weeks ago in Tucson, sacking Stanzi six times (including four on their final drive) and holding Robinson to his only sub-100 yard game, with just 5 yards rushing on 10 carries.
Stanzi is a comeback king - he made a hobby of it in 2009, leading five second-half, come-from-behind wins, and nearly did it again against 'Zona, rallying his team from 20 down to tie the game at 27. So Penn State will have to absolutely step on the Hawkeyes' throats in the event that they can grab a lead.
As for the Nittany Lions, they're coming off of a 22-13 scare against Temple, only putting the game away with a late fourth-quarter touchdown. RB Evan Royster went for a career-best 187 yards on 26 carries, somewhat lessening the burden on freshman QB Rob Bolden, but it was a game that most Penn State fans would rather forget.
This weekend, Bolden and Co. will be facing the nation's fifth-ranked scoring defense, an Iowa team that allows just 12 points a game. Granted, three of those games came against Ball State, Iowa State, and Eastern Illinois, but as the saying goes, "it is what it is". The Hawkeyes will also get a boost as notorious Lion-killing DL Adrian Clayborn goes against a Penn State line that lost RT Lou Eliades last week to season-ending knee injury.
For what it's worth, PSU's scoring defense is just a notch below Iowa's, coming in at 8th in the nation at 12.8 PPG. Somehow, I don't foresee a 13-12 game in the cards. Call it a hunch. But I do see the Nittany Lions avenging some of their past losses this time around. Call it another hunch.
My Pick: Penn State 21, Iowa 20
Your Pick:
3. Florida International Golden Panthers (0-3) at Pitt Panthers (1-2), Saturday, 3:30
Line: Pitt (-16)
The Skinny: Most people see Florida International on the Pitt schedule, they think "automatic win". Not me. I don't think anything is automatic for this edition of the Panthers, at least not to this point in the season. They've shown no rhythm on offense, their line play has been atrocious, their quarterback has been sub-par, their marquee players have either not shown up or gotten hurt, their secondary has been torched, their returners have coughed up the ball, and their coaching staff has failed to make timely adjustments. Other than that, they've been fine.
Sadly, this is an enormous game for the Panthers. They badly need any semblance of good news, they badly need a win, they badly need Tino Sunseri to show some progress, and they badly need Dion Lewis to prove that 2009 was not a fluke.
In FIU, they'll get a team that lost their first game by five points to a Big East opponent (Rutgers) and their second game by a touchdown on the road to the nation's 31st-ranked team in the RPI (Texas A&M). In other words, I don't see this being an 80-0 Pitt win.
The Panthers' defense, already shaky, will be without Greg Romeus and Dan Mason for the long haul. The offensive line, shaky in its own right, comes out with a new-look lineup that includes a position change for Lucas Nix, a promotion for Jordan Gibbs, and a benching for Greg Gaskins. This is not a high-profile opponent, but it is a huge game that the Panthers absolutely have to win, unless they enjoy hearing calls for the firing of their coach and the benching of their quarterback intensify. I'm guessing they don't, and I'm predicting that the changes made this week will pay some dividends in a much-needed victory for the Wannstache and his young team.
My Pick: Pitt 35, FIU 21
Your Pick:
4. Florida Gators (4-0) at Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0), Saturday, 8 PM
Line: Alabama (-7)
The Skinny: Two of the nation's college football super-powers match up in this one, as the Crimson Tide attempts to protect a winning streak of 28 consecutive regular season games and the Gators try to protect their streak of 24 regular season wins in a row. There are future pros scattered throughout each roster, there are rock-star head coaches on both sidelines, there's not much more a college football fan could ask for on an early-October evening.
For Florida to have a chance in this one, young QB John Brantley must play within himself, avoiding the traps offered up by the opportunistic Alabama defense, a unit that's created nine turnovers so far in 2010. He's managed to do that so far this year, throwing six TDs to one pick in the Gators' 4-0 start, but Alabama is not Miami (OH), South Florida, Tennessee, or Kentucky. This defense (1st in the nation in defensive scoring) will be unlike any he's seen to this point in his college career, especially playing on their turf. Alabama has allowed 7.4 PPG on defense in their 16 home games since the start of the 2008 season.
On the flip side, Alabama's offense is hitting on all cylinders, with RBs Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram averaging 7.6 and 9,3 YPC, respectively, and QB Greg McElroy throwing for 899 yards and 7 TD in the team's first four games, including wins over Penn State and Arkansas. It took them nearly the entire game to get past the Razorbacks last week, but the Crimson Tide is much more battle-tested at this point in the season. You can never count out Florida, but I like Nick Saban's team a lot in this one.
My Pick: Alabama 27, Florida 17
Your Pick:
5. Washington Redskins (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1), Sunday, 4:15 PM
Line: Eagles (-6)
The Skinny: Vick! McNabb! McNabb! Vick! Obnoxious Eagles fans! McNabb! Vick! I've tired of this storyline already, and they haven't even played the game.
"Will Eagles fans boo Donovan McNabb?" Who cares? They're Eagles fans. They boo everyone. This will have no impact on the game.
What will have an impact on the game, however, is Michael Vick going against a Redskin defense that's allowed 325 yards passing per game so far in this young season. I'm no Vick fan, I'll never forget what the guy did, and I'd never want him on my team, regardless of how great he might be performing; but in purely a football sense, the guy is playing out of his mind right now, albeit against the likes of Detroit and Jacksonville.
Vick's QB rating in 2010 is 110 (lifetime rating: 77) and his completion percentage is at 60.7% (career: 54.0%). He hasn't thrown an interception, he's averaging almost 8 yards per carry when he tucks and runs, and he's got the locker room believing. He's played so convincingly that the traditionally hard-headed Andy Reid benched Future Face of the Franchise Kevin Kolb in favor of Vick.
As for Vick's counterpart and former teammate, McNabb has had an OK start to the Washington stage of his career, despite barely any rushing game (the team is averaging only 74.3 yards per contest) and a less-than-intimidating group of pass catchers outside of 31-year-old Santana Moss. The Skins are coming off a 30-16 loss to lowly St. Louis, and this Philadelphia team is much better than the Rans.
The Redskins could easily be 0-3 if not for Dallas' numerous brain farts in Week One, but I have little doubt that they will get their third defeat of the season on Sunday. The Eagles' firepower and offensive chemistry should far outweigh that of the Redskins, who are still finding their identity under Mike Shanahan. And yes, Donovan McNabb will be booed.
My Pick: Eagles 31, Redskins 17
Your Pick:
My picks: 4-1 last week, 11-4 season
Your picks (via polls): 3-2 last week, 11-4 season
Don Spagnolo is the founder of the Pittsburgh sports and entertainment blog Mondesi's House.
He can be reached via email at Don.Spagnolo@cbsradio.com and on Twitter @mondesishouse
