Pittsburgh looking at periodic rain and storms chances this weekend before cooler weather moves in
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) - Saturday morning begins very warm and humid across all of Western Pennsylvania and Northern West Virginia.
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Early this morning, there were a few scattered downpours associated with a weak disturbance moving across our area. As this initial wave pushes east, this will be followed by several hours of clouds and possibly a few sun breaks through early afternoon. This will allow temperatures to heat up and with the moisture already in place, there will be some instability that will lead to our next chance of scattered storms for the afternoon and evening hours.
The Storm Prediction Center has a "marginal" level 1 out of 5 risk in place for most of Western Pennsylvania and Northern West Virginia.
The second shortwave will arrive by early to mid-afternoon causing our second round of storms to develop in Central Ohio and then move east toward Western Pennsylvania and Northern West Virginia. The brief clearing ahead of the afternoon round of storms will lead to slightly higher instability values compared to Friday, but winds aloft will not be incredibly strong which will help to limit how long and how well storms are able to organize.
More than likely, there will be a couple of storms that turn borderline strong to severe when they initially develop but do not stay severe for a long time when they start to form lines or cluster. Gusty outflow winds along with isolated instances of a dime to quarter-sized hail will occur with the strongest cells. For those headed to the Pittsburgh Pirates game and or Steelers game, it is advised that you keep an eye on the radar and have rain gear as there will likely be storms at some point between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. Saturday.
The latest short-term modeling suggests that coverage may not be as high compared to what was being depicted yesterday, but these types of systems without a well-defined focus of lift can be tricky to pin down exactly when/where storms will pop.
Additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm are anticipated overnight into Sunday morning as the slow-moving low-pressure center trudges eastward.
This will lead to additional scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially in the midday to early afternoon of Sunday. Monday will deliver one final wave of showers before high pressure delivers drier conditions and several fall-like days starting next Tuesday into late week.
With the flow aloft in the atmosphere out of the north and northwest, we will need to be on the lookout for potential of wildfire smoke from Canada, especially Tuesday through Thursday next week.
