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Maps show track of Hurricane Milton as forecasters predict landfall in Florida this week

Tracking Hurricane Milton's path
Hurricane Milton on path for landfall near Tampa Bay 01:42

Hurricane Milton exploded into a powerful Category 5 storm Monday and the forecast shows it on a path to hit Florida's Gulf Coast mid-week. The storm intensified rapidly over warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, and by Monday afternoon, Milton had maximum sustained winds of nearly 180 mph, the National Hurricane Center reported.

"This is an extremely life-threatening situation & residents should follow advice given by local officials & evacuate immediately if told to do so," the hurricane center warned.

Forecasters predict Milton will make landfall as a major hurricane around the Tampa Bay area on Wednesday, though they said they expect it to weaken somewhat from its peak before striking land.

"While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida," the hurricane center said.

It will drench a large part of a state still reeling from Hurricane Helene. But predictions oscillated early Monday on the timing of Milton's landfall and the expected strength when it arrives, as the hurricane has changed quickly in a matter of hours.

Path of Hurricane Milton

A map from the National Hurricane Center shows Milton as a major hurricane as it approaches Florida's west coast.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.

"Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing," the hurricane center said, noting that the eye of the storm was becoming more defined. 

A map shows the predicted path of Hurricane Milton
A map shows the predicted path of Hurricane Milton as it moves eastward toward the Florida Gulf Coast, as of Oct. 7, 2024. NOAA/National Hurricane Center

The storm is expected to travel near or just north of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula through Tuesday, with heavy rainfall expected as Milton makes its way northeast toward Florida. The Mexican government issued a hurricane warning from Celestun to Rio Lagartos, a hurricane watch from Celestun to Cabo Catoche, and a tropical storm warning from east of Cabo Catoche to Cancun. 

wind-map.png
Map shows the wind speed forecast for Hurricane Milton. NOAA/National Hurricane Center

A storm surge warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.

The hurricane center warned Monday that storm surge in the Tampa Bay area could reach 10 to 15 feet above ground level.

Map shows the forecast for possible storm surge levels from Hurricane Milton.
Map shows the forecast for possible storm surge levels from Hurricane Milton.  NOAA/National Hurricane Center

Heavy rainfall — up to 15 inches in some localized areas — was forecast to fall on parts of western Florida later in the week as the storm makes landfall.

Florida officials prepare for more impact

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Sunday that while it remained to be seen just where Milton would strike, it was clear that Florida would be hit hard. 

"I don't think there's any scenario where we don't have major impacts at this point," he said.

Storm-weary Florida braces for Hurricane Milton as storm intensifies to Category 5 03:53

"You have time to prepare — all day today, all day Monday, probably all day Tuesday to be sure your hurricane preparedness plan is in place," DeSantis said. "If you're on that west coast of Florida, barrier islands, just assume you'll be asked to leave."

DeSantis expanded a state of emergency declaration on Sunday to 51 counties and said Floridians should prepare for more power outages and disruptions, making sure they have a week's worth of food and water and were ready to hit the road.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency, meanwhile, coordinated with the governor and briefed President Biden Sunday on how it has staged lifesaving resources ahead of the storm.

"I highly encourage you to evacuate" if you're in an evacuation zone, said Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. "We are preparing ... for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma. "

As many as 4,000 National Guard troops are helping state crews to remove debris, DeSantis said.

"All available state assets ... are being marshaled to help remove debris," DeSantis said. "We're going 24-7 ... it's all hands on deck."

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