Silverman: Rodgers' Health, Peyton's Arm Strength Are Major Factors In Playoffs
By Steve Silverman
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There are three primary variables as the NFL's heavyweights take the field this weekend in the NFL divisional playoffs.
Two of them are in Green Bay, where the Packers will host the Dallas Cowboys in the first postseason rematch of the classic 1967 Ice Bowl.
The weather is not expected to be anything like it was that Dec. 31, 1967 day, but then again neither Vince Lombardi nor Tom Landry expected temperatures to fall to minus-15 degrees when they arrived at Lambeau Field that day.
Rodgers' health and condition is the most important factor in this year's postseason. If he can stay on the field and get a reasonable push off that leg so he can escape pass-rush pressure -- and even run downfield when the situation calls for it -- the Packers should be able to control their own destiny and make a legitimate run at the Super Bowl.
The Packers are an excellent team, but they have weaknesses, including an ordinary defense. However, when Rodgers is at the top of his game he is the best quarterback in the NFL, and it's not even close. His accuracy, arm strength, ability to read defenses and talent of avoiding the pass rush separate him from the competition.
Rodgers does not make mistakes. He threw five interceptions among his 520 passes this season, and that's simply a remarkable statistic. Head coach Mike McCarthy does not have to worry about Rodgers making stupid plays when he is directing the Green Bay offense. He does not lose his head and he will attack downfield if the opportunity is there, but he won't force it if it's not.
Rodgers is not ahead of Peyton Manning or Tom Brady when it comes to all-time ranking. But by the time his career is over, he just may be in the conversation with those two -- along with Johnny Unitas and Joe Montana -- as the best quarterback to ever play the game.
Brett Favre accomplished a lot in his career, but it seemed that his game was never as finely tuned as the truly elite quarterbacks in the league.
But back to this year's playoffs. If Rodgers does not suffer any setbacks, the Packers should be able to get past the Cowboys, who had more than a little bit of luck in getting past the Detroit Lions (see Ed Hochuli for details). The Cowboys have an overpowering offense and a hard-working defense under Rod Marinelli, but it's difficult to see them getting the best of Rodgers & Co. over 60 minutes.
That brings us to the second variable. Figuring that Green Bay gets past Dallas and the Seattle Seahawks pound the Carolina Panthers, what will the Packers' mindset be when they go to Seattle for the NFC Championship Game?
The Seahawks' game is all about anger, nastiness and a nearly impenetrable defense. When they are at their best, most opponents are intimidated about what they will be facing.
That's probably the main issue for the Packers. Will they be able to play with "full hearts," as Kyle Chandler use to say as head coach Eric Taylor in the brilliant TV series "Friday Night Lights?" Or will they be overwhelmed by their opponents and environment?
That's a question that can only be answered Jan. 18, when the two sides meet on the field. The Packers did not handle the environment well in the season opener back in September, when the they were run out of CenturyLink Field by a 36-16 score. But the Packers have gone on to prove themselves the rest of the way.
Head coach Mike McCarthy will do whatever he can to erase that game from the Packers' memory bank.
Those are the two biggest variables on the NFC side of the equation, while the biggest AFC variable resides in Denver.
Is Manning capable of playing his best football and can he still throw the ball the way he did in the first half of the season? Manning definitely slowed down quite a bit in the final weeks of the season, and he threw just five TD passes during the final five games of the season.
Prior to that, he threw three TD passes or more in eight of his first 11 games this year. There was a noticeable lack of velocity down the homestretch, and it's fair to ask questions about his arm strength.
Manning and the Broncos earned a bye as the No. 2 seed in the AFC, and he certainly has benefited from the rest. However, he's going to have to show that he can still throw the deep-out when the Broncos take on the Colts on Sunday.
If Manning is at his best, the Broncos are capable of winning their divisional playoff and giving the Patriots or Ravens a 60-minute fight in the AFC Championship Game.
If he is not, Manning and the Broncos will likely see their season end quite abruptly.
These variables will play a key role in determining who survives and advances to the conference championship games.
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