Schmeelk: The Guide To The Final 9 Days Of The Knicks' Tank
By John Schmeelk
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The Knicks are in competition with four teams that will finish anywhere from fourth to seventh in the battle for the most pingpong balls in the NBA lottery.
The Nets (whose pick is controlled by the Celtics), Lakers and Suns have wrapped up the top three spots. The drawing to determine the order in the NBA draft will take place May 16. The draft itself will happen June 22.
When will the Knicks be making their pick? That's what we are here to figure out.
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First, here are the odds for the teams finishing between fourth and seventh. If two teams finish tied, both will have the same lottery odds, calculated as an average of the positions of the tied teams. If two teams, for example, are tied for fourth, then the two teams will have an average of the odds of the fourth and fifth places in the lottery odds.
Seed No. 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 1 250 .250 .215 .178 .357 2 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123 3 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040 4 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012 5 88 .088 .097 .107 .261 .360 .084 .004 6 63 .063 .071 .081 .439 .305 .040 .001 7 43 .043 .049 .058 .599 .232 .018 .000
As you can see there significant differences based on where the Knicks fall.
Here are the current standings:
Spot Team Record Games Back 4th Magic 27-50 -- 5th 76ers 28-49 1 6th Knicks 29-48 2 7th Kings 30-47 3
Each team has five games remaining:
Knicks: vs. Bulls, vs. Wizards, at Grizzlies, vs. Raptors, vs. 76ers
Magic: at Cavs, vs. Nets, vs. Pacers, at Bulls, vs. Pistons
76ers: vs. Nets, vs. Bulls, vs. Bucks, vs. Pacers, at Knicks
Kings: vs. Mavs, at Lakers, vs. Rockets, vs. Suns, at Clippers
This is my analysis only:
The Kings appear to be in the worst position with games remaining against the Suns and Lakers while also having the best record of the four remaining teams. They even have a chance of finishing with a better record than Minnesota, which has only two more losses and still seven games remaining.
It's hard to argue Orlando is not in the best position despite games remaining against the Nets, Bulls and Pistons. With a two-game lead on the Knicks and a one-game lead on the Sixers, they are still the favorites for at least a share of fourth place.
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The 76ers recently lost Robert Covington and Jahlil Okafor for the season, but they still have games left against the Nets, Bulls and the season ender against the Knicks.
If Carmelo Anthony sits out the rest of the way, the Knicks' final game of the season against Philadelphia will likely determine whether they will have better, equal or worse odds than the Sixers on May 16. The only game the Knicks might have a chance at winning is against the Bulls on Tuesday. In short, a whole lot of pingpong balls will be on the line when the Knicks play Philadelphia in their final game of the season on April 12.
If the Knicks lose out, they will finish no lower than tied for the fifth-worst record. They have an outside, albeit small, chance of tying with Orlando in the fourth spot. If they win one, or even worse two, they could plummet as far as seventh. Plenty is still at stake in the next nine days. Knicks fans should stay tuned.
For everything Knicks, Giants, and the world of sports, follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk
