Schmeelk: 5 Things To Look For In NBA Finals
By John Schmeelk
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NBA fans are getting what they wanted since the beginning of the season: a rematch of last year's finals and the two best players in the sport: LeBron James and Stephen Curry. Except this time, James is going to have some help with both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love healthy. Meanwhile, Curry might not yet be 100 percent, though his performance in games 6 and 7 against the Thunder say otherwise.
Here are five things to watch that will determine who the next NBA champion will be.
1. How Will Cavs Guard Warriors On The Perimeter?
The Cavaliers' offense, for the most part, has been excellent this postseason. When Cleveland has struggled, it has been on defense. Those struggles have come against the Pistons, Hawks and Raptors, with firepower that pales in comparison to the offensive juggernaut known as the Golden State Warriors. The Cavs' 102.9 defensive rating in the playoffs puts them at eighth among the 16 teams that made the postseason. The Raptors' guards, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, gave them fits. Lowry had two 35-point games while DeRozan had two 32-point games.
MORE: Keidel: Don't Underestimate The Warriors Like I Did
How the heck are the Cavs going to guard Klay Thompson and Curry? Their best options are to play Matthew Dellavedova more on Curry, while Iman Shumpert shadows Thompson. That means either Kyrie Irving or J.R. Smith are on the bench. Irving is a poor defender, and while Smith has ability on that end, he often loses focus, which against the Warriors can be deadly. Irving having a big series offensively is one of the only ways the Cavaliers have a chance to win, so they will have to figure out something to do with him on defense.
James is also going to have to play serious minutes guarding some of the Warriors' best players. He hasn't had to exert himself much so far in the playoffs, so he should be able to guard Curry or Thompson for stretches.
2. Countering The 'Death Lineup'
What are the Cavs going to do when the Warriors go to their "death lineup" featuring Curry, Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green? Cleveland could go with its bigger lineup using two out of the three of Tristan Thompson, Love and Channing Frye, but that would be problematic guarding dribble penetration and the 3.
Having Love on the floor, especially with Irving, will be a huge struggle defensively and would lead to breakdowns that the Warriors will take advantage of. Tristan Thompson is too slow to play Green. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cavaliers settle on a lineup of, Irving, Smith, Shumpert, James and Frye. It gives them great ability to spread the floor and just enough defense not to be completely exploited. They can also try Dellavedova with that group, or go with Tristan Thompson with the goal of dominating the offensive glass. How coach Tyronn Lue navigates that Golden State lineup will be interesting.
3. Make Or Miss League
If it goes long enough, this NBA Finals might set the record for most 3-point shots taken in a playoff series. You might see a game in which both teams combine to shoot more than 80 3s. Whichever teams shoots better from behind the arc could very well be the team that wins this series. The Cavs have shot more 3s per game than any other team in the playoffs (33.2), and the Warriors are not far behind at 30.9 (fourth most).
No team has shot them better than the Cavaliers, either, making 43.4 percent, with the Warriors third at 40.3 percent. A huge reason for that great percentage has been the lights-out shooting of Frye, who has made 26 of 45 3s, good for a 57.8-percent clip. Smith has shot 46 percent, Irving 45 percent, Love 44 percent, Richard Jefferson 45 percent and Shumpert 47 percent. If the Cavaliers are going to win this series, they will have to continue to shoot that well.
4. Can LeBron James Dominate?
The way Cleveland has gotten to the NBA Finals has been rather unique. James is averaging less than 25 points per game on only 18 shots per contest. He hasn't had to do a lot and has dominated games in ways other than scoring. At some point in this series against the Warriors, James is going to have to take over. Last year, Iguodala guarded James as well as anyone ever has. James couldn't isolate and score at will like he can against almost any other player in the NBA. If Iguodala can do that again, the Cavs don't have any hope.
Golden State has other options to guard James as well. Green can be put on James, especially if the Warriors need to get him out of the post. The way Klay Thompson guarded Russell Westbrook in the previous series, I would expect to see him on Irving, but he can guard James as well. Even Shaun Livingston, with his huge wingspan, and Barnes can be switched onto James if the Warriors desire. They have options and can keep running different guys at James to wear him down.
5. Guarding The Screen-And-Roll
Both teams will have challenges guarding the high screen-and-roll. The Warriors had all sorts of issues guarding the Thunder's big men rolling to the basket off of high screen-and-rolls with Westrbrook and Durant. The Cavaliers don't have big guys who can finish near the basket like Steven Adams, Enes Kanter or even Serge Ibaka, but Love, Frye and Tristan Thompson can still do damage. Irving is also just as much of a threat as Westbrook as a penetrator.
The Cavaliers have an even bigger challenge. The Warriors will run Curry and Klay Thompson off screens constantly to free them up for 3-point shots. The Thunder chose to switch on all screens, and it worked fairly well until the final two games of the series. The Cavs' big men don't have the athleticism of the Thunder's, though. Cleveland has been known to trap screens before (a strategy they used at the start of last year's finals), so that's a possibility. Or the Cavaliers could just hedge and switch back, but that can open up too much space for Thompson's and Curry's quick releases.
The Warriors won 73 games for a reason. You have to almost play perfectly to beat them. The Thunder came close but couldn't do it when the lights were the brightest. The Cavs are good, but still won only 57 games in the Eastern Conference. They have flaws, especially on defense that the Warriors are well positioned to take advantage of. James is fantastic, but he is once again the underdog in the NBA Finals. I just don't think he and his teammates can play well enough over the course of the series to beat Golden State four times before they lose four games themselves.
Prediction: Warriors in six.
For all things NBA, please follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk
