How much rain will New York City get this weekend?

Our CBS New York First Alert Weather Team has issued a Red Alert for Saturday.

We can expect an all-day event with heavy bouts of rain in the afternoon and evening that could trigger inland and/or river flooding. Gusty winds will also be felt.

What to expect

The rainfall is quite widespread -- from Sullivan County to Montauk.

A heavier axis of rain is training over our river plain from Middlesex County up through the Passaic and northward into Westchester County. The current outlook is for minor flooding due to an elongated event, however, we will likely see some localized flooding.

We are right on the threshold of flood potential; the last storm put down 2.5 inches over the course of six to nine hours. The smaller rivers, like the Saddle River and Hackensack River, will respond the quickest.

Some rainfall models show closer to 3 inches of rain or more expected Saturday.

Watches and warnings

The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for most of New Jersey, as well as the five boroughs and Rockland and Westchester counties.

We have a 10-20% risk for flash flooding for just about anywhere, save well north and west.

Timeline

3 a.m. - 2 p.m. Saturday: Moderate to heavy rain spreads across the region.

2-8 p.m. Saturday: The brunt of the storm arrives, along with a flood risk.

Heavy bouts are expected around 2:30 p.m.

Another line of heavy rain with gusty wind potential hits around 5:30 p.m.

Gusts over 40 mph are very likely during this time, especially during the afternoon brunt.

8 p.m. Saturday through Sunday: The storm clears the East End of Long Island.

The last of the squall line is expected to pass the East End around 9 p.m.

Windy conditions follow. Expect a steady northwest wind gusting over 30 mph under sunny skies Sunday. The wind will drive the feels-like temperatures back down into the 30s, similar to Thursday's blustery conditions.