How much snow will New York get this winter? Here's what to expect.
NEW YORK -- With the first day of winter quickly approaching, it's time to take a look at what's in store this season.
Even though parts of the region already received up to 20 inches of snow in late November, winter has yet to really show its true colors.
Meteorological Winter, which runs from December 1st through February 28th, is how meteorologists define the winter season. Most people know the official start of winter, known as Astronomical Winter, begins on December 21st and lasts through March 21st, or so.
Either way, now that some people within the Tri-State Area have already experienced that ever-so-cherished first snowfall of the season, the big question is: Is there more to come during actual winter?
A simple answer would be yes. Climatologically speaking, Central Park averages 29.8 inches of the snow for an entire winter season, while some of the northwestern suburbs can average as high as 60 inches a year. With averages like these, snow lovers are typically satisfied, but the key word here is "average," as the last several winter seasons have been anything but.
Take, for instance, the winter of 2022-2023. During that winter, Central Park only received a measly 2.3 inches of snow, which turned out to be the least snowy winter ever recorded. Last winter wasn't much of an improvement, ranking at 9th place for least snowy winter ever with just 7.5 inches recorded. Given these trends, many residents of the New York City region have come to accept that this is the new normal.
Winter 2024-2025 and La Niña
This upcoming winter season is expected to be dominated by the phenomenon known as La Niña. La Niña, which is defined as the cooling of the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, can have far-reaching global effects by altering precipitation and temperature patterns. These effects can range from flooding in Indonesia to drought in Sub-Saharan Africa.
In this part of the world, La Niña's effects are most prevalent during the winter months. With an average duration of 9-12 months, La Niña occurs about every 2-7 years. La Niña can last up to three years.
In the United States, winters that feature La Niña tend to produce colder than average temperatures in the Northern Plains, warmer-than-average temperatures for most of the Eastern Seaboard, and wetter/snowier conditions for the Great Lakes states into northern New England. This is due to the jet stream pattern that carves a path from western Canada through the Midwest and then takes a northerly turn just to the west of the East Coast.
In our area, that plays out in the form of winter storms taking a path to the north of the region, rather than along the coastline. That setup is not usually favorable for big time snowfalls, with many of the storms starting off as snow, and then quickly changing over to rain as warmer air from the south gets worked into them.
During past La Niñas, snowfall has varied greatly from one event to another though. For example, the "Double Dip" (when La Niña conditions occur for two consecutive years) La Niña that began in 2010 and lasted through 2012, produced two very different wintry outcomes within the NYC region. The winter of 2010-2011 ended with 61.9 inches of seasonal snowfall in the park, making it one of the snowiest winters ever, coming in at 3rd place. That winter also included the 2nd snowiest month ever, January 2011, in which 36 inches fell. Another historic feat that winter was the "Post-Holiday Blizzard," which occurred the day after Christmas 2010. Many New Yorkers won't forget that storm, as it paralyzed the city for days following a 20-inch snowfall, the 7th highest total in city history. In contrast to that blockbuster winter season, the winter of 2011-2012 was the 8th least snowy winter ever, having recorded just 7.4 inches of snow.
The strength of La Niña events can be attributed to how far below average the sea surface temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific get. Winter of 2010-2011 saw water temperatures 1.6 degrees below average, classifying it as a very strong La Niña. Meanwhile, the winter of 2011-2012 had water temperatures running only 1 degree below average, making it a moderate La Niña. More often than not, snowfall during La Niña winters ends up below average. One could call the winter of 2010-2011 an extreme outlier.
All forecast models are suggesting that the winter of 2024-2025 will feature a very weak La Niña. This would lessen the effects of a typical La Niña pattern, possibly leading to average snowfall in NYC for a change. However, even with a weak La Niña forecasted, temperature forecasts are still indicating above average readings through the entire winter, and that could hamper snowfall totals. With that said, if cold enough air and atmospheric moisture come together at the same time, snow can fall and accumulate, regardless if the winter winds up with above average temperatures.
What is a winter storm warning? Advisories explained
Ahead of an approaching winter storm, the National Weather Service usually issues numerous types of warnings and advisories. The most common is a winter weather advisory. These advisories are issued when at least 3 inches of snow or a trace of ice is anticipated within a 12-hour window.
Less common, but more severe, is a winter storm warning. When these warnings are issued, a significant and impactful snowfall is imminent. To reach warning level, a winter storm must be capable of putting down 6+ inches of snow or at least a half an inch of ice during a 12-hour period. These criteria are for the majority of the viewing area. The warning threshold is higher for Sullivan, Ulster and Dutchess counties at 7 inches, while Ocean County's warning threshold is lower at 5 inches.
Of all snow related alerts, the blizzard warning is the most rarely issued. For this type of warning to be issued, snow that is falling or blowing is expected to combine with sustained winds or wind gusts that are greater than or equal to 35 mph, leading to reduced visibilities of less than 1/4 of a mile for three hours or more. Since 2000, only five blizzard warnings have been issued in NYC. Although still infrequent, they are commonly issued for our coastal counties, especially Suffolk.
Will it be a White Christmas in New York City?
Watch any Christmas movie set in NYC, and scenes of snow falling or snow on the ground during Christmas Day are very prevalent. Despite those visuals of a cheerful city dressed in white for the holiday, the actual chance of seeing snow on Christmas Day is quite low.
Historically speaking, the odds are only at 11%. And that paltry number does not take into account the effects of climate change. A White Christmas is defined as having an inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. That snow can either be freshly fallen or from a storm in the preceding days.
Why are the odds so low?
While December in New York can be very cold at times, it is not typically when the coldest airmasses of the season invade the region. Those are usually reserved for the months of January and February. It is also not the snowiest month either, only averaging 4.9 inches. Another inhibiting factor is that the nearby ocean temperatures are still relatively mild in December, so many times when storms move through, they are able to draw in that warmth from the ocean, making a would-be snowstorm into a rainstorm instead. Also, the average high on December 25th is 42 degrees -- not exactly conducive for sustaining a snowstorm or maintaining snow on the ground.
The last time the city recorded a White Christmas was in 2009. For that Christmas, a storm that dumped over 10 inches of snow several days before the holiday left the city blanketed in a sea of white. However, in the 15 years since then, snowfall during the month of December has been pretty minimal, with December 2020 being one of the few exceptions when 10.5 inches fell. With recent trends taken into account, it appears that the odds will favor more wet Christmases than white ones.
Stick with our First Alert Weather team for live maps and the latest updates as we track the season's snowfall.
