Schmeelk: Warriors With Green Will Wrap Up NBA Finals In 6
By John Schmeelk
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Give the Cavaliers credit. No, pardon me, give LeBron James and Kyrie Irving credit for their team winning Game 5 on the road and getting the series back to Cleveland. They combined for what was probably the best two-man performance in NBA Finals history.
Yet, the Cavaliers were still involved in a tight game heading into the fourth quarter. The Warriors were without Draymond Green, who is their best defender, and, arguably, their most valuable player. No one would argue he is their most versatile player. Yet, they were still in the game most of the way.
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Green's help defense was sorely missed, though the way James and Irving shot the ball it might not have mattered. They were that good. But the problem with Green's absence was there was no facsimile to replace him with. There are few players in the NBA that can combine such rebounding, rim defense, and versatile offensive game.
The Warriors' "death lineup" all comes back to Green, whose freakish length can let him play an effective center despite only being 6-foot-7. With him out, the Warriors played 23 different lineups and none more than eight minutes.
With the other four members of their "death lineup" on the floor (Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes), the Warriors tried to use different players to ill the void. They tried going very small with Shaun Livingston for eight minutes and they were outscored by nine points. With Andrew Bogut on the floor with those four for eight minutes, they were outscored by six. With Festus Ezeli at center they were plus-8 in just five minutes, and with Marreese Speights they were plus-4 in three minutes.
There were some other quick combinations, but overall those four on the floor at the same time were a minus-7, a far cry from their usual success. When the Warriors went too small the Cavs weren't challenged in the paint. When they went too big the offense wasn't the same due to their inability to spread the floor. The bottom line is that without Green, the Warriors just weren't the same.
That will change when he joins his teammates for Game 6 in Cleveland. The Warriors will be better, especially defensively. Even with Bogut's absence, the Warriors will simply play Green at center more, and give Bogut's minutes to Speights or Ezeli. There won't be much of a downgrade with those types of decisions.
The real question is whether or not the Cavaliers can repeat their performance. They didn't do a whole lot differently than they did in prior games, relying a lot on one-on-one play to score. They were wise to abandon the idea of posting up LeBron on Iguodala and instead run him through screens up top to create better matchups. James is a different player when he doesn't have to deal with Iguodala.
The bigger factor for James was his ability to hit his jump shot, something he was not able to do for most of the season. The Warriors are going to let him shoot from the perimeter. If he makes them consistently it could be a difference in this series. However, probability says that isn't going to happen again.
Irving, meanwhile, was simply unconscious during Game 5. He played one of the best individual offensive games in NBA Finals history. The performance was, quite simply, unrepeatable. He won't play that way again because those types of special shooting games don't happen in consecutive games. The Warriors still have excellent defenders to throw at these guys in the aforementioned Green, Thompson and Iguodala.
If LeBron can continue his hot shooting, and get some help from Kyrie and someone else, the Cavs have a chance. There's a far better chance of the Warriors playing much better with Green back in the lineup. There's also a far better chance that the Warriors improve on their 3-for-22 3-point shooting from the second half of Game 5. They are too good to shoot that way again.
It's not impossible for Cleveland to push this series to a Game 7, but it just isn't likely its two stars play that well for a second straight game. Golden State is still the better team. That hasn't changed. That will more than likely be the difference in Game 6.
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