Keidel: The Winner Of Mayweather-Pacquiao Will Be...
By Jason Keidel
» More Columns
So here we are, the quintessential Christmas Eve (OK, Dec. 23) for fight fans. Under the tree, under the bow, is boxing's biggest event of the 21st Century. And in a classic boxing tableau, in two days we'll be presented with Manny Pacquiao versus Floyd Mayweather Jr., the bull versus the matador.
The fight, at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, will smash every monetary metric, from pay-per-view buys to gate receipts to each pugilist's purse.
Some of the mind-numbing numbers include...
-- Roughly $180 million for Mayweather, for 36 minutes of work.
-- Roughly $75 million in gate receipts (prior record is $20 million).
-- Roughly $300 million in pay-per-view revenue (prior record is $150 million).
-- Roughly 3 million pay-per-view-buys (prior record is 2.48 million).
-- Roughly $100 per consumer to view the fight.
But numbers aside, this most physical of sports, fights, and fighters are battling for something more metaphysical.
Legacy.
To own the other's soul.
Though each man has had a splendid career, this is a career-defining fight. The loser of this bout will suffer something far more painful and poignant than one loss on their record.
If Mayweather loses, he'll be forever branded as a boastful brat who was long-overrated and forever ducked Pacquiao for the very reason we saw on Saturday night. His record will be seen as being built on the backs of stiffs. Even the few luminaries he fought -- like Shane Mosley and Oscar De La Hoya -- were deep into the back nines of their respective careers.
If Pac Man loses, he will be seen as a steroid contrivance who crumbled the moment he was rigorously tested for PEDs. His meteoric ascent in weight, gobbling up belts at a historic pace, will be seen as synthetically enhanced, despite no hard proof that he juiced. He will be defined by his one loss to Marquez instead of his three wins. He will be seen as the man who lost to Timothy Bradley, not the one who won everywhere but the scorecard. He will be seen as a reckless brawler who never learned to box.
These are the comically gross characterizations that come with one loss in one night, one fight. The Bills are known as losers for losing four Super Bowls, while the Buccaneers are winners for winning one but never sniffing another.
I've spoken to Mark Breland, Deontay Wilder, Thomas Hearns, Bernard Hopkins, Marvelous Marvin Hagler, David Dinkins Jr, Jimmy Lennon Jr, Kenny Bayless, Steve Farhood and Al Bernstein, to name a few. And I can get no consensus. Not only on who will win, or how they will win, but also what they need to do to win.
So here's one man's opinion...
Despite the modesty, machismo, and pre-fight platitudes, this is, by far, the biggest fight of either man's career. This defines them more than the over 100 combined fights they've already endured. And they DO feel the pressure. They feel it now, they will feel it in the locker room, and in the ring.
And perhaps that, more than anything, will decide who wins. In all sports we've seen inferior teams and players produce superior results. Sometimes it's just bad luck, timing or talent. Other times the weight of the moment crushes otherwise better athletes.
Assuming both men handle the moment with equal aplomb, they will go with what got them here. Talent, timing, temerity.
Mayweather will be particularly, and predictably, pensive, flicking the occasional jab, hurling the occasional counterpunch. While Pacquiao tries to smother him, Mayweather will measure Pac Man for distance and dominance.
If Pacquiao can get jump and stay on top of Mayweather, he can take the early rounds, establish a rhythm, and keep pounding away. The only way Pacquiao can win is to steal the first four rounds and build from there. Should he hurt Mayweather, all the better.
For those concerned about Pacquiao's lack of knockouts over the past five years, remember that he's floored many a man, including Chris Algieri six times last year. The fact that they got up doesn't mean Pacquiao has no power.
And Freddie Roach assured me that not only has the born-again Filipino got his mojo back, he's got a unique, personal disdain for Mayweather. Roach said if his fighter gets Mayweather on the ropes, he will finish him off.
But that's not a facile task, particularly against a defensive genius like Mayweather. For all his machismo, Mayweather has backed up his bravado with boxing brilliance. He's been tested 47 times since 1996 and his record remains pristine. And that's not an accident.
When you have two supremely gifted fighters, you take the boxer, the safer style and calmer ring countenance. That's Mayweather, whose shoulder roll and head movement has bewildered countless foes.
It's not sexy to say, but Mayweather's 48th fight should play out like the first 47, even if his latest opponent is his most dangerous. For all his offensive splendor, Pacquiao can be reckless, and leave himself vulnerable when he attacks, which makes him perfectly contoured for a fine counterpuncher. And there's no better sniper in the business than Mayweather.
If this fight were five years ago - when it should have happened - then a pick for Pacquiao would have been far more realistic. But Pac Man has taken a lot of shots in the subsequent years and rings, including a brutal KO loss to Juan Manuel Marquez.
Many fighters, including Hagler and Leonard, have said that you don't shake a loss like that. They know better than we do. And for that reason, among a few others, is why Mayweather is the pick here, by unanimous decision.
Follow Jason on Twitter @JasonKeidel.
