Climate Change by the numbers: Local experts share latest projections for extreme heat, rising sea levels and intensifying storms
NEW YORK -- To better understand how climate change will affect our area, CBS2's Meteorologist Vanessa Murdock spoke with local experts about their latest projections.
They say climate change will continue to impact the Tri-State Area, driving bigger storm surges, more intense rainfall more often, and extreme heat that lingers longer, to name a few.
"There are many downstream consequences from changes in climate, it's not just about the weather," said Dr. Anthony Broccoli, director of Rutgers Climate Institute.
The risk is greater than imagined, according to Dr. Christian Braneon, who co-chairs the New York City Panel on Climate Change, NYCPCC. The panel provides up-to-date climate science to help the city prepare and become more resilient.
"They're going to be extreme weather events that happen sequentially. So you can imagine a heatwave, followed by a power outage, followed by a tropical storm or a hurricane," Braneon said.
Braneon shared updated numbers with CBS2 and explained, "since the early 1900s, New York City has warmed about four degrees Fahrenheit already."
The NYPCC expects temperatures to keep climbing, specifically the 2030s will be 3 to 4 degrees warmer than 1980 to 2010, and the 2050s 4 to 6 degrees warmer.
"A huge concern for us here in New York City is the increased prevalence of extreme heat days," added Braneon.
The NYPCC projects an increase from 17 extreme heat days to 2 - possibly 3 - times that many by the 2050s. Mercury will rise higher, too.
Extreme heat disproportionately affects Black New Yorkers and claims as many as 350 lives a year in the Big Apple.
Sea level rise remains another serious threat. With a baseline period of 1995 to 2015, the NYPCC expects 7 to 11 inches of additional rise by the 2030s, 14 to 19 inches by the 2050s, and 30 to 50 inches by 2100.
"By late century, you might expect flooding during high tide in places where you see it now almost daily," Braneon said.
Storms coming ashore will bombard our coastline with higher surge, too.
Braneon seemed confident we can continue to live in New York City in 2100 with planning.
"One thing that's really important, as far as to preemptively make sure, that it's affordable housing at the highest elevations in the city," he said.
On Long Island, Freeport boasts elevated roadways and homes. The work started about a decade ago to combat rising sea level.
"With the new predictions, they may have to do it all over again," said Adrienne Esposito, executive director of Citizens Campaign for the Environment. "There's been a documented increase in sea level rise in the northeast of 13 inches over the last 80 years. And that number is accelerating now, because of climate change."
On Long Island, rising water means more flooding and more saltwater intrusion into the drinking water supply.
"In a worst case scenario, by the end of this century, everything south of Merrick Road or Montauk Highway is going to be flooded or underwater," Esposito added.
More heat will be problematic on the island, too. Esposito said Long Islanders currently experience "more mild winters and more intense heat in the summer."
Mild winters means more ticks, more mosquitos and more insect borne disease too, according to Esposito.
"The Long Island Sound has increased in water temperature by five degrees over the last 20 years. Winter flounder have died off, lobsters have left, and more invasive species have come in to change the whole ecology of Long Island Sound" said Esposito.
For the island, the city and the Garden State, a warmer Atlantic presents challenges.
"What we've seen is about a three degree rise in water temperatures during the summer since 1985," Broccoli said.
Warmer water adds more fuel for tropical storms to feed off of. Mix stronger storms with rising sea level, and it's a recipe for disaster.
"At the sea level monitoring stations in New Jersey, we've seen a rise about 18 inches over the course of the last 100 years or so," said Brocolli.
Jersey is a hot spot for sea level rise because the land is sinking.
"By roughly 2050, we would foresee an additional roughly one to two feet of sea level rise, relative to where we were, say, around 2000," Brocolli said.
But rise by 2100 depends on human behavior. With low emissions, 2-4 feet of rise expected. With high emissions, as much as 6 feet is possible.
"The implications of sea level rise are really more frequent flooding" added Brocolli.
Talking temperature, Brocolli said, "over the last 125 years or so, temperatures in New Jersey have risen by about four degrees Fahrenheit."
By 2100, low emissions might result in temperatures 2-4 degrees warmer and with high emissions 4-10 degrees warmer.
"Under a high emission scenario, there's one estimate that indicates that much of New Jersey would get between 10 and 25 days a year with triple digit heat," said Brocolli.
Now, century mark and above is rare.
Heavy rain will be even heavier.
"By some estimates may be as much as 20 to 25% heavier by the end of this century," Brocolli said.
Some experts declare our current situation a climate crisis, but there is hope, according to Thaddeus Pawlowski, managing director of the Center for Resilient Cities and Landscapes at Columbia University.
"Unexpected and fruitful collaborations give me a lot of hope," he said.
He points out Billion Oyster Project, which builds reefs with oyster shells with the help of students and volunteers. Youth Activists demanding climate change and education give him hope, too.
"I feel like we're doing a lot of learning with young people together as we manage this crisis," he said.
"I think that 10 years ago, you know, people didn't believe climate change is real. Now people understand that it is real and it's serious," said Esposito.
"This is a true test for humanity, about whether we're actually as civilized as we think we are," added Braneon.
When asked how we best combat climate change, the most common response revolved around fossil fuel consumption. The climate experts expressed need to move away from fossil fuel consumption as a society.
