Lichtenstein: Nets Have Further To Fall Before Turning It Around

By Steve Lichtenstein
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In their first four years in Brooklyn, the Nets have gone from 49 wins, to 44, to 38, and finally to last season's 21-61 dumpster fire.

You would think we've hit rock bottom, right?

Well, to paraphrase John Oliver on "Last Week Tonight," lean back and look straight up. Look a little further. That's rock bottom.

Welcome to the 2016-17 Brooklyn Nets.

Outside of center Brook Lopez and point guard Jeremy Lin, this iteration consists of players who have not yet proven they belong in a good NBA team's rotation or last proved that they did many moons ago.

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The Nets won't even get a chance to profit from their expected lousiness as the Celtics have the right to swap slots at the 2017 draft courtesy of the summer 2013 trade for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry. The Celtics also own the Nets' selection outright in 2018.

Boston can take its first step towards possibly acquiring the top overall pick when it hosts Brooklyn in Wednesday's season opener.

That the Nets are in for a horrific season is not exactly a hot take, but what fans really want to know is: When will their fortunes turn?

The answer is there's a very long road to travel, but if there's any light at the end of this dark tunnel, it comes from the fact that Sean Marks, the general manager who took over this mess in February, and his new coach, Kenny Atkinson, at least talk a good game.

Marks, in particular, seems to have a firm grasp as to how to rebuild a franchise, focusing on young players and surrounding them with veterans of high character. His prior experience with the San Antonio Spurs is already apparent through how he has made over much of the support staff and the implementation of a new D-League affiliate on Long Island.

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Marks and Atkinson throw around words like "development" and "process," which can be taken as both music to the ears of Nets fans tired of owner Mikhail Prokhorov's failed quick-fix approaches or as a torso shot for those who understand the difficulty of resurrecting a team in the superstar-driven NBA without a lottery pick until 2019. You may recover eventually, but it will require a lengthy period before you can get back to hanging out with the rest of the league.

Even with boatloads of salary cap space this past summer, there wasn't much Marks could do about improving the talent that will actually take the Barclays Center court this season.

Marks attempted to go after young guards Tyler Johnson and Allen Crabbe in restricted free agency, but both players' offer sheets were matched by their incumbent clubs.

Marks did manage to turn over two-thirds of the 15 members who slumped to the finish line in April. Only three of the departed 10 have latched on to another NBA team as of this writing, a telling reminder how bad last season was.

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Besides the free agency signing of Lin to a three-year $36 million contract, the most notable move was the draft day trade that sent forward Thaddeus Young to Indiana for the 20th overall selection, which yielded swingman Caris LeVert.

Of course, in true Nets fashion, LeVert is coming off multiple foot surgeries and will be eased into the flow this season. So don't look for immediate help in return for the Nets losing their second-leading scorer last year.

Atkinson spent much of the preseason experimenting with rotations and combinations to bring out the best in a relatively undertalented crop. When there's little separation between players three through 15, it's no easy task to settle on nine or 10 who you trust every night.

Here's how it should shake out:

Starting lineup:

The offense will undoubtedly revolve around Lopez and Lin -- Brook-Lin, get it?

Atkinson has indicated that he wants the floor spread on most possessions to run more of a motion offense, which can be a double-edged sword.

Lin will absolutely thrive -- the spacing will be geared for his drives into the paint, where he has the ability to finish near the rim or find unguarded shooters along the perimeter. Excessive turnovers have always been a nasty side effect of Lin's game, but he has been working to improve his 3-point shooting, which will open options on pick-and-rolls.

On the other hand, it will be interesting to see how Lopez fits in the spread-em-out-and-fire-away-from-3 style that Atkinson clearly wants to implement.

Lionel Hollins learned the hard way that Lopez is not Marc Gasol and it won't be long before Atkinson realizes he is not Al Horford. He is Brook Lopez, one of the last remnants of the league's golden days when slow, big men ruled the courts.

Atkinson may be saving it for the games that count, but he hasn't called many post-ups for Lopez, one of the premier inside scorers in the league. Instead, the 7-footer has been focusing on his outside shooting. He is expected to expand his attempts from 3-point distance, where he is a career 9.7 percent shooter. He went 4-for-12 in the five preseason games he played.

Again, I would expect that Atkinson will want to take advantage of his best player's greatest strength once the regular season begins by having Lopez catch the ball more often closer to the basket.

A bigger concern is which players will surround Lopez and Lin to create credible threats from long range.

Sophomore swingman Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and veteran power forward Trevor Booker have to start, given that they're Brooklyn's two best defenders on a dreadfully bad defensive team. Unfortunately, their lack of prowess from deep will more likely elicit a "Yikes!" from Ryan Ruocco on his YES broadcasts as opposed to his signature "You bet!"

I would have expected that the other wing job would go to Bojan Bogdanovic, who is coming off a monster summer performance for Croatia's national Olympic team (including the qualifications preceding the Games), where he led the tournament in scoring. He is a very streaky shooter, capable of going off for a 44-point game like he did last March in Philadelphia, or misfiring on 18 consecutive field-goal attempts over a three-and-half game span like he did in mid-January.

However, Atkinson may not be entirely pleased with Bogdanovic's overall game, especially his laissez-faire defense. While it made sense initially to take it easy on Bogdanovic following his summer workload, Atkinson said Thursday's preseason finale against the Knicks, during which he started Randy Foye at guard, was more of a run-through for how he will open the season.

Not that the 33-year-old Foye brings anything special to the table at this stage of his career. His 3-point rate has been steadily declining and he's not quick enough to defend starting NBA guards. With Bogdanovic and other younger players on the roster at that position, it would make sense to eventually move Foye to the bench where he belongs.

Reserves:

If you believe the Nets' starting five defense is inadequate for this level, wait until you get a load of the bench brigade.

It's so lacking in speed and athleticism that it will behoove Atkinson to mix and match as opposed to making five-man line changes like his predecessors often did. Either Lin or Lopez has to be on the floor at all times. Points allowed per possession will spike whenever Booker or Hollis-Jefferson takes their seats.

In addition to Bogdanovic, Atkinson has been turning to veterans Luis Scola and Greivis Vasquez early in games off the bench. Though both are savvy with the ball, neither player can guard their respective positions.

The same goes for backup center Justin Hamilton, who can be effective as a pick-and-pop 3-point artist but is needed to at least act as something other than a lamp post when defending the paint.

The only ray of hope among those in the second unit has been Joe Harris, who seems to have vaulted over Sean Kilpatrick in the early season battle for backup shooting guard.

With the usual preseason disclaimer, Harris went 10-for-16 (63 percent) from 3-point range in the five exhibitions he played. Equally admirable was his sense of the game, with well-timed cuts to the basket and solid positioning on the defensive end.

Kilpatrick has come back to earth after piling up points during his two 10-day contract periods at the end of last season. Though his summer work ethic was lauded by his bosses, if he can no longer hit his 3s, finish at the rim, or play team defense, he will be stuck on the bench.

Since before training camp, Atkinson has attempted to put all his magical development beans into the body and mind of former No. 1 overall draft pick Anthony Bennett. Unfortunately, the 23-year-old forward's play in the preseason is further evidence why the Nets are his fourth NBA team in four years.

If the Nets choose to take a flyer on one of the recently waived players (Archie Goodwin, R.J. Hunter) around the league, I believe Bennett would be the logical odd man out.

Outlook:

What I find most disturbing about the Nets' prospects at the start of this season is that for all their  talk of using 2016-17 as a year for development, until (if?) LeVert returns to action, they really don't have any young players in their everyday lineup to pique fans' interest outside of Hollis-Jefferson. The average age of their projected 10-man rotation is a little over 28. Sure, guys like Hamilton, Harris, and Kilpatrick still have room to grow, but their respective ceilings are in sight.

The team has hinted that 2015 first-round selection Chris McCullough and 2016 second-rounder Isaiah Whitehead will be spending significant time at the start of this season in the D-League. None of the undrafted rookies, such as speedy point guard Yogi Ferrell and sharpshooting forward Beau Beech, made the final cut. They're also expected to join Long Island's roster.

What's left is a terribly overmatched (I can't say "historically overmatched" -- after all, it was only six seasons ago that the Nets went 12-70) contingent that could be fun to watch at times, provided Lopez and Lin stay healthy and the players buy into Atkinson's more fan-friendly systems.

The Nets' defense, however, will prove to be a nightly horror show. It's everything -- getting back in transition, pick-and-rolls, protecting the rim, closing out on 3-point shooters, and finishing possessions with defensive rebounds. The Nets will be near the bottom of the league's rankings in all of those categories and little can be done to make corrections given their personnel.

No, this will be a season where reaching rock bottom will be an accomplishment.

Projection: 17-65 (miles from a postseason berth)

For a FAN's perspective of the Nets, Jets and the NHL, follow Steve on Twitter @SteveLichtenst1