Lichtenstein: What Nets Will Look Like Next Season Is Anyone's Guess

By Steve Lichtenstein
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The playoff door was shut shortly after the New Year. The regime was changed. One of the NBA's most clutch players was bought out after the trade deadline passed without even a whimper. By mid-March, the remaining core players were either shut down or had their minutes restricted.

Anyone who hung around to watch the final days of this Nets' season, which mercifully came to an end with a 103-96 home loss to the Raptors' B team on Wednesday, well, they're a glutton for punishment.

The Nets closed the season by losing 10 straight games by an average score of 115-98 to finish with a record of 21-61, the third-worst mark in the NBA.

General manager Sean Marks, who replaced Billy King on Feb. 18 and has the Herculean task of rebuilding with crumbs for assets. Remember, the Celtics own the Nets' first-round pick in the draft thanks to King's summer 2013 trade for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce and have a 15.6 percent chance of choosing first overall. Marks set up the season's final month to be an audition. As opposed to, you know, a competition against other teams that ticket-holders thought they were paying for.

Either way, it didn't go very well.

Two young players -- Willie Reed and Sergey Karasev -- decided to bail even before the curtain closed, for "personal reasons." If it was because they couldn't bear to watch any more, I could feel their pain.

Oh, you're bound to hear some success stories. Disregard them. Stats in blowout losses are meaningless. Someone has to shoot, rebound and pass the ball.

For example, you'll see a player like forward Thomas Robinson, who posted six consecutive double-doubles before a knee injury on Sunday shelved him for the remainder of the season, and think, "Maybe he should be getting more than 20 minutes per game," as he so ineloquently tweeted 10 days ago.

Robinson certainly could find a niche in the league if he tried to play like Reggie Evans -- all rebounding, hustle plays and loose change pick-ups near the basket. Unfortunately, he thinks he's LaMarcus Aldridge.

Per NBA.com, Robinson took 108 shots outside of the restricted area this season. He made 23 (21 percent). His turnover rate of 15.2 per 100 possessions was the NBA's second worst among players who played in at least 70 games.

That's why, if the 25-year-old Robinson exercises his player option as expected he'll look for a new contract above the league minimum. If he's successful, he will be suiting up for his seventh different team in five years next season.

Below are my projections as to which of the 15 members on the roster will return next season:

Free Agents

Willie Reed and Sergey Karasev: Both have made their unhappiness over their lack of playing time known -- Reed via an Instagram posting three weeks ago in which he thanked former Nets coach Lionel Hollins for giving him his first opportunity in the NBA while claiming "for some odd reason I haven't played since you left." Hmmm, wonder who would know the answer to that? Karasev's message was delivered by a surrogate, his father, who in a November article in a Russian sports publication wished for his son to be traded. I think it's safe to say that neither will be photographed in a Nets uniform again.

Henry Sims: The D-League call-up played his way through two 10-day contracts before becoming a full-timer for the final five games of the season. I have no idea what the Nets' brass saw in the 26-year-old center that made them think he was so much better than Reed. Like Robinson, Sims believes he has great touch, but he doesn't. He had the worst net rating (minus-16.8) of any Net, albeit in only 14 games. There is no reason for Marks to rush into a deal, but Sims could be a training camp invite if he's not signed elsewhere.

Jarrett Jack: Jack's unfortunate ACL tear on Jan. 4 ended his short-lived stint as a starting NBA point guard. The Nets would be insane not to buy out his $6.3 million 2016-17 salary for $500,000 before July 1, if only to create more cap room.

Donald Sloan: For the second year in a row, an injury to the starting point guard thrust Sloan into duties for which he is ill-equipped. Like with George Hill in Indiana last season, the Nets plummeted when Jack went down and then Shane Larkin proved inadequate after initially being given the keys. Sloan did shoot a career-high 38.4 percent from 3-point land this season, but he's just too slow for a league with so many road runners at the position. I could see him being brought back for another non-guaranteed minimum deal as the Nets' third point guard, but he might just want to get the stink of Brooklyn out of his system.

Markel Brown: It's very tough to gauge how the new hierarchy views the 2014 second-round draft pick. Many folks disparaged Hollins for keeping Brown tied to the bench after starting him throughout the Nets' late-season and short postseason run a year ago. However, take a look at Brown's game-by-game minutes since Hollins' firing. It also took a while for interim coach Tony Brown to stop with the mind games and give the 24-year-old more consistent time on the court. Wayne Ellington started over him through season's end.

Markel Brown may be able to leap to the stars, but there's more to the game that he needs to master. His jump shot looks smoother as compared to a year ago, but the results are still well below par (39.4 percent from the field, 31.4 percent from 3). As I noted in a previous post, his defense has also taken a step back. Still, the Nets only need to give him a $1.18 million qualifying offer to make him restricted. Marks will at least do that, and then wait to see if another team signs him to an offer sheet. Unless someone unexpectedly offers him a Jeremy Lin-like deal, I expect Brown to be back.

Player Options

Robinson: If he declines his option, he comes back. If he opts out, I would doubt Marks chases him.

Larkin and Ellington: Though NetsDaily.com reported earlier in the season that its source believed both would opt out, neither enhanced their value with extended playing time down the stretch. The 23-year-old Larkin's speed goes in only one direction -- towards the hoop. That makes him a turnover machine (14.1 per 100 possessions, fifth-worst among guards who played in more than 70 games) who can't stay in front of his man on defense.

Among all the players King signed in the flea market last summer, I was most hopeful about Ellington, a guard with a good long-range stroke who would benefit from opposing teams packing the paint against the Nets' frontcourt tandem of Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young. Boy was I wrong. Outside of a handful of games where he lit it up from deep, Ellington was a disaster. His offensive rating of 96.3 points per 100 possessions was the lowest of any Net outside of the departed Andrea Bargnani. If both bolt, good riddance.

Under Contract

Sean Kilpatrick and Chris McCullough: If King were still around, I'd be worried both players would be pledged in another one of his go-for-broke blockbusters. Here's what worries me now: Kilpatrick's shooting stats from March 1 to March 19, when he signed his three-year deal after two 10-day tryouts: 49.3 field-goal percentage, 47.1 percent from deep. Post-contract: 44.8 percent and 30.2 percent. Complacency or simple regression to the mean?

McCullough has improved with more playing time after missing the first two-thirds of the season while recovering from a severe knee injury, but he's still far from being a reliable rotation player. Recently, Tony Brown disclosed that McCullough didn't know all the plays. Athletic and developing 3-point consistency, the 21-year-old McCullough will be groomed to eventually replace Young. Meanwhile, Kilpatrick's ability to initiate offense will also keep him in Brooklyn through the summer.

Bojan Bogdanovic: As I've written ad nauseum, Bogdanovic is the Net most in need of a change of scenery. His limitations far exceed his one skill, even on nights when his long-range shooting is on fire. Bogdanovic, who will turn 27 next week, will be entering into the final season of his three-year contract that the Nets offered using their mini mid-level exception. Like Mirza Teletovic before him, Bogdanovic would become a restricted free agent after next season, assuming the Nets make a qualifying offer. This may be just wishful thinking, but I predict that Marks will look to get something of value in the trade market this summer for Bogdanovic.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: Don't even think about moving him, Sean. Only 21, the rookie wing in my opinion was as indispensable as anyone on the Nets this season. So, of course, he was forced to miss 50 games due to a fracture in his ankle. In his small sample size, Hollis-Jefferson made the most significant impact on the defensive end, even more than Brook Lopez. His final on-court versus off-court numbers per NBA.com: 101.4 points allowed per 100 possessions when he was on the floor; 109.7 points allowed when he wasn't. Hollis-Jefferson's offensive skillset is at best a work-in-progress, but we watch him from the edge of our seats in anticipation of something spectacular. Oh yes, he will back -- and even better.

Lopez and Young: Even after this season's disaster, the two big men seem to be the preferred building blocks in owner Mikhail Prokhorov's vision. Whether Marks shares that vision remains to be seen. Just know that the Nets have reportedly tried many times in the past to deal Lopez and never found a partner willing to take on a max contract for an immobile center with a history of foot surgeries, even though he's been relatively healthy the last two seasons.

Toronto reportedly had interest in Young at the trade deadline, but I'm skeptical of any rumor in which a good team has interest in a tweener forward who can't shoot 3s. Both players re-signed with Brooklyn prior to this season for multiple years. Combined they will count approximately $33.2 million against a projected $90 million 2016-17 salary cap. With all the other contracts coming off the Nets' books, they will have in the neighborhood of $42 million to spend this summer. That's plenty for Marks to work with without necessitating a trade. Factor in Marks' preaching for patience and I predict that the Nets will go into training camp with both Lopez and Young on board.

The Coach

Tony Brown was put in an untenable situation. He was basically a gym teacher, trying to instruct and motivate young players (the Nets cut their average age to 25 years old by season's end), while offering nothing but encouragement. However, this is the NBA, and the firing squad has already taken casualties in Washington and Minnesota, with Sacramento presumably next. The lack of talent aside, Brown didn't exactly distinguish himself in his audition. He will be let go to make way for the Nets' sixth head coach in five seasons.

And with that, Brooklyn's most important season -- the offseason -- will officially begin. In the near future, I'll have posts on the Nets' coaching search, and then comes the draft -- the Nets will have a pick -- No. 55 overall -- after swapping with the Clippers -- and the free agency signing period.

Before you know it, training camp will arrive. Hopefully by then we will have put the Nets' nightmarish 2015-16 season to bed.

For a FAN's perspective of the Nets, Jets and the NHL, follow Steve on Twitter @SteveLichtenst1