Will mortgage rates drop to 5% in 2024?
It's no secret that interest rates are high. Though that may be good news for savers, it's a harsh reality if you're in the market for a new home. After all, high mortgage rates result in high mortgage payments. And, every quarter of a point of mortgage interest could represent thousands of dollars over the life of the loan.
Today's high interest rates are the result of the Federal Reserve's work to temper inflation. But with inflation cooling, many experts predict that lower interest rates are on the horizon — a beacon of hope for homebuyers.
But when will mortgage rates start to fall? Will they drop below 5% in 2024? And is it even worth waiting for lower rates to buy a home? Here's what you need to know.
Don't wait. Learn more about your mortgage options today.
Will mortgage rates drop to 5% in 2024?
Current 30-year mortgage rates are averaging well over 7%. If it seems like it wasn't long ago that rates were hovering below 3%, that's because it wasn't. Although sub-3% mortgage rates are likely a long way off, what are the chances that rates will fall to 5% in 2024?
Rates are currently high because the Federal Reserve has used increases in the federal funds rate target to combat inflation. That target sets the foundation for interest rates on loans.
The good news is that inflation is cooling, and many experts expect interest rates to move in a downward direction in 2024. Then again, a two-point drop would be significant, and even if rates fall, they're not likely to get down to 5% within the next year.
After all, the Federal Reserve typically moves slowly when it comes to monetary policy changes. The central bank doesn't want to shock the market by making moves too quickly.
Why you shouldn't wait for 5% mortgage rates to buy a home
"Regardless of what the Fed does with respect to rates, I would never advise prospective homebuyers to try to time the market or trajectory of mortgage rates," says Bob Driscoll, SVP and director of residential lending at Rockland Trust Bank. "Instead, they should focus on the factors they can control, such as the timing that works best for them in their unique financial and life circumstances and the values they are seeking in a home. Assessing these factors will result in a much higher pay-off emotionally for homebuyers in 2024."
Here are a few other reasons why waiting for mortgage rates to drop could be a mistake:
Find out how affordable a mortgage loan can be now.
You could be waiting for quite a while
As noted, the Federal Reserve typically moves slowly when they make monetary policy changes. As a result, if rates do fall to 5%, it will likely take at least a couple of years to happen, barring some drastic, unexpected economic changes.
Ultimately, chances are you won't be able to wait too long when it's time to shop for a new home. You may need to move for a new job or because your lease is ending, or any number of other factors that might come into play. The simple fact is that you may not be able to wait the years it could take for mortgage rates to fall back to, or below, 5%.
Competition may get tougher
The housing market is a competitive one, but it's not nearly as competitive as it was when interest rates were lower. After all, as interest rates rise, potential buyers leave the market. That means when interest rates fall, more buyers will likely enter the market.
When more buyers enter the market, it will be harder for you to make your offer stand out among the competition. Moreover, the law of supply and demand dictates that prices must rise alongside demand unless growth in supply keeps up — which isn't likely in the housing market. So, if you wait too long, competition could drive prices higher.
You're not building equity as you wait
If you don't own your home, you're probably renting. After all, you need to live somewhere. But there's an inherent problem with renting. When you rent your home, you make monthly rent payments, but you don't build a single dime in equity. As soon as the month is over, the value of your rent payment, at least to you, is spent.
Even if you purchase a home while mortgage interest rates are high, you'll be building equity in your home with each mortgage payment. That's equity you can fall back on in the future if times get tough.
Get on track to building equity by finding the right mortgage loan now.
The bottom line
Mortgage rates aren't likely to fall to 5% any time soon, and waiting for them to do so could be a big mistake. Instead, consider buying a home now and taking advantage of a market with less competition. Then, when interest rates fall to a level you're comfortable with for the long term, refinance your mortgage to take advantage of lower rates.
