Will Americans Embrace Obama's "Change"?

This column was written by CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic.

Last week, when CBS News and The New York Times asked Americans to tell us their expectations for the Obama Presidency, 70 percent believed that President Obama will "bring about real change in the way things are done in Washington."

In exit polls last November, a majority of voters said they wanted the government to "do more to solve problems." That was the first time that has been the case since the question first appeared on exit polls in 1992.

While the most important accomplishment Americans hope President Obama can achieve is a fix for the economy, Americans recognize it will be a long process. More than half don't expect real progress for at least two years, but three out of four think the economy will be better by the end of his first term in office.

Two additional - and more specific - changes are expected to come more quickly from the Obama Presidency: allowing homosexual men and women to serve openly in the U.S. armed forces; and closing the Guantanamo Prison in Cuba.

Gays serving openly was a very controversial issue 16 years ago, at the start of the Clinton Presidency, but now the concept has clear majority support. But closing the prison where the U.S. holds terrorist suspects on its military base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and moving them elsewhere, does not.

The "don't ask, don't tell" policy of allowing gay men and lesbians to serve in the military if their keep their sexual orientation secret -- wasn't what Bill Clinton had promised in his 1992 campaign.

He had wanted to let homosexuals serve openly, but that idea met with intense and vocal opposition, and shortened Clinton's inaugural "honeymoon."

In a CBS News Poll conducted in early 1993, 56 percent opposed the idea. And just as many people (42 percent) opposed even allowing homosexuals to serve - not even if they kept their sexual orientation a secret - as favored permitting it. Today, though, only 17 percent of Americans oppose allowing gays to serve at all.

Opinions on some gay rights issues have changed dramatically over the past 16 years. Now, although many Americans object to same-sex marriage, most of the country has no problem with homosexuals serving openly in the military.

In 1993, only 37 percent of Americans supported this. Today, Americans are ready to move beyond "don't ask, don't tell:" 62 percent are now in favor of allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military, while only 26 percent oppose it

The change in opinion on this question is apparent across the board. Majorities of all age groups now favor allowing gay men and women to serve openly, and support for that change in policy comes from people at all income and educational levels.

As is the case with many questions about gay rights, women are more supportive than men: 70 percent of women would favor the change in policy, compared with 54 percent of men. And there remain party differences: 70 percent of Democrats favor the change, but just 45 percent of Republicans and conservatives do (however, more Republicans and conservatives favor the change than oppose it).

Even white evangelicals in our poll favor allowing gay men and women to serve openly, by a margin of 53 percent to 36 percent.

But Mr. Obama's other widely publicized promise for change does not have majority support - at least not right now.

Throughout his campaign, Mr. Obama promised to close the Guantanamo prison. CBS News reported that he started making plans to do so as early as ten days after the election.

But this is not necessarily something the American public wants. In last week's CBS News/New York Times Poll, 48 percent of the public said the U.S, should continue to operate the prison at Guantanamo Bay, while 40 percent agreed with Mr. Obama that the U.S. should close it and transfer the prisoners elsewhere.

Support for closing the prison is only slightly higher now than it was in mid-2006, when 34 percent wanted to close it. At that time, 51 percent wanted to keep it open.

There is also a party division here: 51 percent of Democrats would close Guantanamo, but only 19 percent of Republicans would.

However, we have seen American opinion change dramatically after presidents take action.

The most notable example is how many Americans who opposed military action against Iraq in both 1991 and 2003 supported the wars as soon as it began.

For example, in mid-January 1991, 46 percent of Americans thought the United States should wait before engaging Iraq militarily, to see if economic sanctions would work.

But a few days later, the same individuals were asked that question again, and only 16 percent said that the U.S. should have waited, and 79 percent said that starting military actions was the right thing to do.

If Mr. Obama does order the closing of the Guantanamo prison, of course, the public could applaud his decision. More than a third of Americans say they haven't heard much about the prison and its use, and many of those people are Democrats.

But right now, despite the fact that the president wants to do it, closing the Guantanamo prison is not a policy the majority supports. Change in public opinion on that issue has yet to come.