Why Obama should worry that current scandals might impact 2016

At a fundraiser in New York City this week, President Obama admitted he has begun to consider how he will be remembered after he leaves the White House.

"You start thinking about history and start thinking in longer sweeps of time," Mr. Obama told Democratic donors about being a second-term president.

This week has not done much for the president's legacy. Questions have swirled around Washington on three separate controversies involving the administration: The investigation into the Benghazi terrorist attacks, revelations that the IRS inappropriately targeted conservative groups during the 2012 campaign, and reports that the Justice Department seized the phone records of numerous Associated Press reporters and editors.

White House officials are trying to mitigate the damage from the three scandals so that they don't derail the rest of the president's second term agenda. But they might do well to look beyond the next 3 1/2 years. Because no matter what the president accomplishes while he still occupies the Oval Office, once he leaves, his legacy will be in the hands of his successor.

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Ironically, no one knows this better than Mr. Obama. In 2008, his campaign message of "change" signaled a break with the policies of President George W. Bush. During his first term, Mr. Obama rarely missed an opportunity to remind voters that he inherited the economic crisis from his predecessor. Republicans "drove the car into the ditch" was a favorite refrain. At last month's White House Correspondents' Dinner, the president joked he was building a "Blame Bush Library" next door to the newly-opened Bush Library in Dallas.

Mr. Bush, too, was not above using the incumbent president's troubles for his own electoral gain. As a candidate in 2000, then-Gov. Bush pledged to "restore honor and dignity" to the White House, a thinly-veiled reference to President Bill Clinton's sexual misconduct and impeachment.

National exit polls from both the 2000 and 2008 elections show that Mr. Clinton's and Mr. Bush's records, while not a determining factor, did influence a large segment of voters. In 2008, 51 percent of respondents said they strongly disapproved of Mr. Bush's handling of his job, and 82 percent of those voters cast their ballots for Mr. Obama. In 2000, 44 percent of voters said the Clinton-era scandals were at lease somewhat important to their vote. Beyond those numbers, the fear of a de facto third Clinton or third Bush term could be found in the candidates themselves. 2000 Democratic nominee Al Gore and 2008 Republican nominee John McCain almost never campaigned alongside the incumbent presidents.

Which brings us back to Mr. Obama and his "Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad" week. We don't know yet what lasting impact these scandals will have on his legacy or the 2016 campaign. But the two leading names for the Democratic nomination - former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden - are administration alums who will be easily tied to the Obama record. In Clinton's case, the Benghazi scandal has become as much about her as it is about the president. If Mr. Obama wants a Democratic steward of his legacy after he leaves office, he will need to avoid Obama-fatigue setting in among voters. Otherwise, his successor might be opening up a "Blame Obama Library" of his own.

Here's what the 2016 contenders have been up to this week:

Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J.: Christie welcomed royalty to the Jersey Shore this week. Prince Harry stopped in the Garden State during his multi-day trip to the U.S. Christie presented the prince with his own royal fleece before giving him a tour of recovery efforts from superstorm Sandy.

Gov. Susana Martinez, R-N.M.: The Ohio Republican party announced this week that Martinez will keynote its state dinner on June 29. Martinez is often mentioned as a candidate for higher office, but has tried to stay out of the national limelight while focused on her first term in the governor's mansion. She is up for reelection in 2014.

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.: Rubio's Reclaim America PAC went on the air in New Hampshire this week with an ad defending fellow Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., for her vote against a recent gun control measure. The ad notes that Ayotte, another possible presidential contender, is a former federal prosecutor and voted for other gun-related measures that reached the Senate floor.

Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wis.: A new poll gives Ryan the edge over fellow badger Walker. Twenty-seven percent of Wisconsin Republicans want Ryan as their standard-bearer in 2016, compared to 16 percent who chose Walker, according to a Marquette Law School poll. But among all Wisconsin voters, Hillary Clinton tops both Ryan and Walker in head-to-head matchups.

Vice President Joe Biden: Earlier this week, Biden delivered the commencement address at the University of Pennsylvania. He told the graduates, "don't listen to the cynics" and that "it's never, ever, ever been a good bet to bet against America." The White House also released Biden's 2012 financial disclosure forms this week. They showed, among other things, that the Vice President took out his second home loan in as many years in 2012. The loan was valued at $100,000 to $250,000.

Gov. Martin O'Malley, D-Md.: O'Malley took over the Oval Office this week. Well, not the real one. According to the Baltimore Sun, O'Malley visited the Maryland set of the Netflix show "House of Cards" and lingered in the replica Oval Office. "So, I could come out and do some campaign shots?" O'Malley reportedly asked the producers.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y.: Thursday, Gillibrand announced legislation to strengthen procedures for preventing and prosecuting sexual assaults in the military. Gillibrand touted the Military Justice Improvement Act as bipartisan and bicameral. The announcement came on the same day Mr. Obama met with Defense Department officials at the White House to discuss the issue.