Why McCain Won

CBS Election Analyst Linda DiVall is a veteran GOP pollster who heads her own polling firm, American Viewpoint. She was the chief pollster in Elizabeth Dole's presidential campaign.

First of all, voters in New Hampshire rewarded his constant presence with astronomical favorability ratings. With independents, McCain had favorable ratings of 83 percent to 11 percent unfavorable, while with GOP voters he had an equally impressive 76 percent-15 percent favorable-unfavorable rating. George W. Bush did not fare as well with independents, possessing a 49 percent-46 percent favorable-unfavorable rating. His unfavorable ratings were 6 points higher with Republicans than were McCain's.

Independent voters were crucial to McCain's margin. CBS Newsexit polling indicates he won with independents by a margin of 61-19 percent. However, McCain also won handily with Republicans. As the McCain "Straight Talk Express" heads to South Carolina, it is imperative that he continue to be competitive with Republican voters.

McCain Wins Big His 16-point victory over George W. Bush surprises everyone. But it was a snap compared to what John McCain has to do next.

Debate performance was a significant factor in the decision-making of New Hampshire voters. Thirty-four percen said they followed the debates very closely and McCain beat Bush with that group by an impressive margin of 50-33 percent.

Let's take a look at some of the themes and issues that propelled McCain to victory. Besides likeability and vote performance with independents, five factors contributed to establishing the McCain personae:

• His reform message allowed him the opportunity to portray himself as a fighter and outsider despite his years in Congress. According to CBS News exit polling data, 79 percent of New Hampshire GOP primary voters thought that recent proposals to reform campaign finance would help the political process.
• While Gov. Bush was ambivalent on taxation of Internet sales, McCain was staunchly opposed - as was the New Hampshire electorate (72 percent in opposition to requiring taxation on Internet sales). This was a clear error on Bush's part as 44 percent of primary voters stated that the Internet will affect their life and work in the next few years a great deal.
• Third, McCain's veteran status appeared to be a greater vote motivator than George W. Bush being the son of former President Bush. Twenty-five percent stated that McCain's military record was very important to their vote, in comparison to just 5 percent who stated that Bush being the son of the former president was very important to their vote decision.
• Fourth, McCain appeared to control the agenda on how to deal with a budgewt surplus. While conventional wisdom dictates that GOP voters put great emphasis on taxes, New Hampshire voters were evenly divided between taxes and strengthening Social Security being the higher priority for the next president.
• And finally, and perhaps most alarming for George W. Bush, New Hampshire GOP primary voters were evenly split as to whether McCain or Bush would be most likely to beat the Democratic nominee in November. Bush has won on this dimension by overwhelming margins prior to the New Hampshire primary. While previous polling in South Carolina has shown Bush with a commanding lead (52 percent-32 percent in the most recent poll), McCain's commanding margin in New Hampshire may well puncture the invincibility argument that the Bush forces have articulated.

So what should the strategists aboard the Straight Talk Express be worried about as they head to South Carolina? Well, first of all, the South Carolina primary electorate is likely to be more heavily dominated by those who identify with the religious right. In 1996, 36 percent of South Carolina primary voters identified with the religious right, whereas in New Hampshire only 16 percent did. The South Carolina electorate is also likely to be more represented by the establishment GOP and have a lower turnout of independents.

McCain won handily with veterans in New Hampshire and must find a way to identify and turn out that coalition on his behalf in South Carolina.

Undoubtedly, there will bgreater discussion of the two candidates' tax plan and finally there is the issue of the vast financial resources that Gov. Bush has at his disposal. McCain spent 60 days in New Hampshire, he will be pulled off the road to raise money and thus have less time to personally connect with voters in South Carolina one on one. McCain needed a trifecta in February to play in March. He won the first race in New Hampshire, but needs to continue to do well in South Carolina and Michigan to be competitive. McCain should expect a more aggressive and focused campaign by Gov. Bush in South Carolina - with a vastly different electorate.