Why a High-Dividend Stock Strategy Isn't a Good Approach
I've seen a number of articles touting high-dividend stock strategies, which are poor substitutes for either a high-quality bond approach or diversified stock approach. My Buckingham Asset Management colleague Jared Kizer wrote the following to help you see why such approaches are likely not in your best interests.
While the financial media touts high-dividend stocks strategies as alternatives to other prudent investment strategies -- such as equity strategies or high-quality fixed income portfolios -- there are several issues you should consider. First, a high-dividend strategy is far riskier than a high-quality fixed income approach, so comparing the two is like comparing apples to oranges.
Second, a high-dividend strategy is essentially a value stock strategy, which involves buying companies that have low prices relative to earnings, book value, dividends or some other accounting metric. However, the high-dividend approach to a value stock strategy has historically had the lowest returns, and returns (meaning dividend payments plus capital appreciation) are ultimately what should matter.
The Risks of a High-Dividend Approach
The table below illustrates the historical differences in risks between a high-dividend stock strategy and a high-quality fixed income approach for the period of 1952-2009. For the high-quality fixed income approach, we'll use the returns of five-year Treasury notes.
High-Dividend* |
Five-Year Treasury |
|
Lowest Annual Return |
-36.3% |
-5.1% |
Lowest Two-Year Total Return |
-39.7% |
-1.7% |
Lowest Three-Year Total Return |
-33.6% |
1.6% |
% of Years With Negative Returns |
24% |
14% |
Annual Volatility |
20.0% |
6.4% |
Comparing High-Dividend Strategies to Other Value Strategies
In academia, there are four well-known approaches considered to be value stock strategies:
- Buying companies with low stock prices relative to accounting book value
- Buying companies with low stock prices relative to earnings
- Buying companies with low stock prices relative to cash flow
- Buying companies with low stock prices relative to dividends
Low Price-to-Book-Value Ratio* | Low Price-to-Earnings Ratio* | Low Price-to-Cash-Flow Ratio* | Low Price-to-Dividends Ratio* | |
Average Return |
16.6% |
18.4% |
17.7% |
13.7% |
Volatility |
22.4% |
23.7% |
21.6% |
20.0% |
Sharpe Ratio |
0.51 |
0.56 |
0.58 |
0.44 |
* Data courtesy of Ken French's Web site.
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