Where Are The Women?

Maybe it was a sign when New Jersey Gov. Christie Whitman was drummed out of the GOP vice presidential hunt by the release of a photo showing her patting down a black man during a police ride-along.

Or it could be that the fabled soccer moms, who helped elect Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, have better things to do than run for high office.

In reality, there are no cute explanations for the dearth of women running for top elective offices this campaign season, political experts and women’s advocates told CBSNews.com in interviews this week.

"This year, there are not as many women candidates … as there have been in some prior years. It’s not a precipitous drop, but the numbers are down from previous years," said Prof. Mary Hawkesworth, director of the nonpartisan Center for American Women in Politics, which keeps data on the number of female candidates and incumbents.

Accounts differ, but there seems to be one common thread: With the obvious exception of first lady Hillary Clinton's unprecedented Senate candidacy, which makes daily headlines, Campaign 2000 is not likely be remembered by historians as the Year of the Woman.

That’s not to say women won’t have a lot of pull at the ballot box. They will, of course, have more pull than ever. However, they won’t necessarily have a host of women to pull for – at least toward the top of the ballot.

“I think it’s probably further down on the ballots where there’s a lot going on,” said Prof. Thad Beyle, an expert in state politics from the University of North Carolina, referring to state and local elections.

At the presidential level, it’s all men. Demographically speaking, if it weren’t for Joe Lieberman, oe could be excused for thinking this was the 1950s. Al Gore, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are as mainstream as they come. And even with his Jewish faith, the Connecticut senator isn’t exactly a political iconoclast.

Of course, as experts have long pointed out, the story of women in politics doesn’t begin – or end – at the very top of the ticket. A case in point: If Lieberman does get elected, Connecticut’s Republican governor has indicated that Rep. Nancy Johnson is on the short list to take Lieberman’s seat in the Senate. That would put Rep. Johnson (R) in line to hold that seat in perpetuity, since she is a popular and well-respected figure in the Constitution State.

“That would be really big,” said Wilson.

Johnson’s rumored Senate freebie notwithstanding, there are only three women nationwide – all Democrats – who have a reasonable chance of becoming new senators via the ballot box on Nov. 7. There’s the first lady, of course, and two others: Rep. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., who's trying to oust vulnerable GOP freshman Sen. Spencer Abraham; and dot-com millionaire Maria Cantwell, who just won a late primary and will take on the semi-vulnerable Sen. Slade Gorton, R-Wash.

With 32 Senate races – 64 major-party candidates – that is a low number. Three other women incumbents – Sens. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, and Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif. – are fairly safe bets to win re-election.

At the House level, the picture becomes even more sparse, given the huge number of races. The highlight for women this year is probably the candidacy of former Democratic Rep. Jane Harman, who is trying to retake her old House seat from GOP Rep. Jim Kuykendall. Harman vacated her seat in 1998 to pursue an unsuccessful bid against Gray Davis for the California governorship.

There are other strong female candidates in California, Kentucky and Florida, says Ellen Malcolm, president of Emily’s List, a group dedicated to electing Democratic women.

Malcolm is one advocate who disagrees with the premise that the Year 2000 is a weak one for aspiring female politicians.

“When you look at the House races, there were 12 Democratic challengers who as of June 30 had raised $1 million. Eight of the twelve were women. So women are definitely all over the most competitive House races, in terms of the Democrats trying to take back control over the House,” she says.

But Malcolm conceded that overall, the numbers are low, saying "That's why we have Emily's List."

At the gubernatorial level, women are making more noise. Five women – three of them Republicans – are running for governorships across the country. Even so, that’s only five female candidates in eleven races (22 major party candidates).

Of these women, only one is an incumbent. Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire is runnng a tough race for re-election in a state that leans Republican.

Another Democrat, Lt. Gov. Ruth Ann Minner, has a good chance of victory in Delaware.

And from the other side of the political aisle, three Republican women are pushing for governorships in Montana, North Dakota and Vermont.

North Dakota and Delaware are both states which have not yet had a woman governor, notes Prof. Beyle. And since the candidates in these two states have an excellent chance of winning, the biggest breakthrough for women this year could come at the statehouse level. Although Heidi Heitkamp, the candidate in North Dakota, must first decide whether she can continue her run, after announcing she has lymph cancer.

"The governorships are the framework for the presidency. This is where you look to for the future leadership of America,” says Marie Wilson of the White House Project.

In sum, while you won’t find any great tide of women candidates at the top levels of American campaigning this year, the groundswell continues, most experts say.

Look for the first lady to grab major headlines, and look for a host of intriguing second-day stories about how women fared. But don’t look for the history books to remember the Year 2000 as a benchmark for women’s political ascendancy.