When will mortgage interest rates fall in September? 3 dates to watch
Homebuyers waiting for mortgage interest rates to fall – and homeowners looking to refinance from their currently high rates – may not have to wait much longer. With a cooling inflation rate and a rise in unemployment, a cut to the federal funds rate now appears imminent when the Federal Reserve meets again in September. And some lenders aren't even waiting for that to happen, instead electing to price in assumed rate cuts prior to their formal adjustment.
This is great news for those who have contended with high mortgage rates for much of the last two years (they hit their highest point since 2000 last summer). There are multiple steps these buyers and owners should be taking now to prepare for these rate climate adjustments, including boosting their credit score, shopping for lenders and contacting a real estate agent. They should also be ready to lock in a low mortgage rate when it becomes available. But when will mortgage rates fall this September? While it's impossible to predict with certainty, if history is an indicator there are some select dates buyers and owners should watch closely in the month. Below, we'll detail three of them.
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3 dates in which mortgage rates could fall in September
Mortgage rates change daily. But those changes could be more pronounced on and around the following dates this September:
September 6, 2024
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its next unemployment report on the first Friday of September. If that report, detailing August data, shows another rise in unemployment (as recent reports have), mortgage interest rates could fall marginally.
A rise in unemployment will undoubtedly cause the Fed to take action in the form of a cut to the federal funds rate. And if the unemployment data is particularly troublesome, it could hint at a more substantial cut to the rate than previously anticipated. All of that speculation could then be priced into lender offers, resulting in slightly lower mortgage interest rates than were available earlier that same week.
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September 11, 2024
September 11, 2024, marks the next date on the calendar in which mortgage rates could fall. Inflation has now dropped in four consecutive months and if the data for August, released on September 11, shows a fifth drop, it will underline the importance of cutting interest rates now.
While not quite at the Federal Reserve's target 2% inflation goal (it's currently at 2.9%), any additional movement here will all but ensure that the Fed cuts rates when they meet later in the month. Mortgage lenders, then, may start offering lower purchase and refinance rates on this date and in the days after, too.
September 18, 2024
September 18, 2024, is the date millions of Americans are looking forward to. This will be the day the Federal Reserve concludes its latest two-day meeting, and, hopefully, the day in which they issue their first rate cut since March 2020. While all signs are pointing toward a reduction in the federal funds rate on this date, the amount in which rates are cut is still being speculated upon.
It's possible that movement on the aforementioned dates spurs the Fed to be conservative with just a 25 basis point cut. But, if they feel some urgency, a half a percentage point reduction isn't out of the question. Homebuyers and owners, then, should pay particular attention to the rate market on this date, and in the days after when the market has adjusted to any news. This could be the time to lock in the lowest mortgage rate available in years.
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The bottom line
September 6, September 11 and September 18 could all be dates in which mortgage rates adjust downward, although perhaps not in significant margins. In totality, however, rates are likely to end the month lower than where they started. And, any number of developments can affect what lenders offer for this particular product so monitor rates daily and be prepared to act when you find a rate that fits your budget.
